OKC Thunder's Projected Playoff Path

Despite dealing with key injuries and facing a tough schedule, Oklahoma City has won 10 of 11 games since the All-Star break. Basketball Reference gives the reigning champs a 91.8% chance to finish the regular season with the one seed, but the Thunder cannot be too comfortable because San Antonio is lurking. 

At least the Spurs staying within striking distance means it is almost guaranteed to be on the other side of the bracket, thus making the Western Conference Finals the earliest the Thunder would have to face Victor Wembanyama and company. That’s crucial because San Antonio matches up well against the reigning champs. 

Let’s assume Oklahoma City holds onto its three-game lead and secures the best record in the Western Conference. What would the Thunder’s likely playoff path be? Here is Basketball Reference’s projected standings given that the team with the best chance to occupy each seed actually finishes in that position. 

Anything can happen in the play-in tournament, but Basketball Reference gives Golden State the best chance to emerge with the eighth seed. This would be a fun first round series for Oklahoma City because it’s the 10-year anniversary of Stephen Curry’s Warriors orchestrating a 3-1 comeback against Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. 

The victor of the Nuggets and Lakers series would be the next opponent. Both teams have struggled mightily to play quality defense this season, although Denver’s slew of injuries is a valid excuse. Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun and Peyton Watson missing huge chunks of games dismantled the defense. Whether Denver or Los Angeles win, it will be difficult for Oklahoma City to contain offensive geniuses like Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic. 

Should the Thunder prevail, then one of the Spurs, Rockets, Timberwolves or Suns would be the final obstacle in the West. San Antonio and Minnesota are far more likely opponents, and both squads are capable of putting up a massive fight given their size, defense and star power. 

Finally, Detroit has the best chance to win the East at 32.7% per Basketball Reference. Although it would be a physical series defined by defense and paint scoring, the Pistons lacks self-created scoring and playmaking outside of Cade Cunningham. The Thunder’s defense can load up on him and dare his teammates to hit jumpers. 

Overall, the most likely path as of this moment seems to be Golden State, Denver, San Antonio and Detroit. Everybody will be needed to get through this gauntlet.