Basketball Reference forecasts OKC's playoff journey, detailing their path through potential matchups and highlighting crucial home-court advantages.
Oklahoma City entered the All-Star break with a 42-14 record and a three-game lead over San Antonio for the one seed. Securing home-court advantage is crucial because the Thunder plays far better in Paycom Center. For example, it went 11-2 and scored 120.2 points per 100 possessions at home last playoffs compared to 5-5 and 106.7 points per 100 possessions on the road.
Basketball Reference currently projects that Oklahoma City has a 92.4% chance to finish the regular season with the one seed. The Thunder’s roster is finally close to full strength, so it’s a logical projection when also combined with its three-game lead.
Assuming that the team with the highest chance to secure each seed actually finishes in that position, here is how Basketball Reference projects the Western Conference standings at the end of the regular season:
- Thunder
- Spurs
- Nuggets
- Rockets
- Timberwolves
- Suns
- Lakers
- Warriors
- Clippers
- Trail Blazers
It’s probable that the Lakers win its play-in tournament game and grab the seventh seed. The winner of the Warriors and most likely the Trail Blazers gets the eighth seed.
Oklahoma City would subsequently host either Golden State or Portland in the first round. Both series should be a maximum of five games. Jimmy Butler’s injury snuffed out any real chance of making a dark horse run, while the Blazers do not have enough offensive firepower to steal numerous games.
Next, the Thunder would host the winner of the Rockets and Timberwolves. Both teams are highly physical, so whoever emerges will be bruised and battered. Houston is the preferred opponent due to its injuries and poor half-court offense. Minnesota adding Ayo Dosunmu at the trade deadline also filled key weaknesses, and the Wolves generally bring games against the Thunder down to the wire.
If Oklahoma City makes it to the Western Conference Finals, then it probably faces either the Nuggets or Spurs. Denver is undoubtedly the best team in the West outside of the reigning champs, but injuries have been a massive issue. Aaron Gordon’s hamstrings are especially concerning. The Spurs could sneak into the Conference Finals if the Nuggets lose a key player.
Detroit has the highest chance to win the East at 35.5% according to Basketball Reference. The Pistons and Thunder have similarities in terms of style and roster construction, but Detroit probably does not possess enough fire power and experience to knock off the reigning champs.
Overall, the most likely path to another title for Oklahoma City involves defeating either Golden State or Portland, then Minnesota, then Denver and finally Detroit. That’s a grueling path, so the Thunder will need to be healthy and in top form.