Uncover the X Factors that will determine the Thunder's playoff fate against the West's elite contenders.
Oklahoma City’s first playoff game is at 2:30 p.m. Central on April 19. It’s still unclear who the champs will face because the play-in tournament is ongoing, but it will be either the Suns, Clippers or Warriors.
Although the Thunder needs to take care of business in the first round, the team cannot be blamed for looking ahead to other series. Here is the X Factor for every hypothetical series against the other top six seeds in the West. Players cannot be selected twice, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren are ineligible for the exercise.
San Antonio Spurs: A series against the Spurs would be tough for Gilgeous-Alexander because Stephon Castle is an elite perimeter defender with enough size to absorb Gilgeous-Alexander’s bumps. Victor Wembanyama’s length also poses serious issues for the reigning MVP’s interior scoring bag.
Oklahoma City will need other players to step up and create shots. Enter Ajay Mitchell. The sophomore excels at generating paint touches and has the chops to either score at a high rate or dish out assists. Plus, Mitchell’s defense will be crucial against Castle, De’Aron Fox and Dylan Harper. Mitchell only played in two of the four games versus San Antonio this season, and the Thunder split them. It’s worth noting that he was +2 in the first game (Dec. 13) and +4 in the second game (Jan. 13).
Denver Nuggets: Nikola Jokić averaged 27.7 points and 10.7 assists per game this season on 67% true shooting. The three-time MVP is one of the most unstoppable offensive forces in NBA history…but nobody told Jaylin Williams apparently. He is strong enough to hold his ground on post-ups and mobile enough to hang with Jokić on the perimeter. Williams’ defense against Jokić is crucial, especially since it allows Chet Holmgren to act as a roamer. Additionally, Williams knocking down triples would bust Denver’s zone defense and force Jokić to leave the paint, thus exposing his lackluster mobility and burst.
Los Angeles Lakers: Luguentz Dort gets the nod against the Lakers. He’s an extremely strong, physical defender who can fight through screens and absorb contact on Luka Dončić’s drives. And if Dončić is having a poor night, then Oklahoma City likely demolishes Los Angeles. Dort being solid from beyond the arc also neutralizes JJ Redick’s potential plan of placing a big onto Dort and having the big sag into the paint to deter Gilgeous-Alexander’s rim attempts.
Houston Rockets: Although the Rockets’ offensive rebounding took a massive hit when Steven Adams suffered a season-ending injury, Houston is still a formidable team on the glass. Isaiah Hartenstein will subsequently be critical because the veteran is by far the best rebounder on the Thunder. Hartenstein’s defense against Alperen Şengün is another battleground to highlight.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Alex Caruso receives the final X Factor spot. He has the defensive skill set to guard Anthony Edwards on the perimeter and Julius Randle on the block, so Caruso’s defense is mighty important in a potential matchup. Minnesota’s offense also struggles with turnovers, and few players generate turnovers like playoff Caruso.