Dropping to the two seed could shield OKC from tougher rivals, creating a smoother path to the Western Conference Finals.
The Bulls held an 88-80 lead over the Thunder in the late third quarter of last night’s contest largely because Shai Gilgeous-Alexander could not hit the broad side of a barn and Chicago’s offense kept getting to the basket at will. Oklahoma City’s energy was low, and it looked like the reigning champs were headed for another loss. However, the Thunder regrouped and rattled off a 32-4 run that cemented an important comeback win.
The champs improved to a 58-16 record and maintained their small lead over the Spurs for the one seed. San Antonio is only two games back in the loss column and holds the tiebreaker, so Oklahoma City must win seven of its final eight games in order to guarantee itself the one seed. Every Spurs loss obviously increases the Thunder’s margin for error, but Victor Wembanyama and company have won 23 of their past 25 games and own the 9th-easiest remaining schedule based on opponents’ winning percentage. On the flip side, the Thunder has the most difficult remaining schedule across the NBA, including a back-to-back against New York and Detroit.
Securing the one seed would cement Gilgeous-Alexander’s MVP case and lock down home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. The Thunder went 11-2 at home compared to 5-5 on the road during its championship run, and numerous players have stated that the energy and noise inside Paycom Center make the team play better.
But let’s say San Antonio finishes the regular season with the best record in the West. Although it would sting, there is a potential silver lining to Oklahoma City getting the two seed.
Basketball Reference currently projects that Los Angeles has a 79.2% chance to claim the three seed. Luka Doncic and company have two fewer losses than the Nuggets and Timberwolves and also own the tiebreaker over both teams. Meanwhile, the fourth through sixth seeds are murkier, but Basketball Reference gives Houston the best chance to finish with the sixth seed at 51.6%.
The most likely scenario is that the Lakers and Rockets play each other in the first round as the third and sixth seeds. Therefore, Oklahoma City dropping to the second seed means it would play the winner of these two teams in the second round. San Antonio, Denver and Minnesota are comfortably the most dangerous teams in the West for the reigning champs, so the fact that all three teams would be on the other side of the bracket represents a massive win for Oklahoma City.
This is not to say that a series against the Lakers or Rockets would be easy, but Los Angeles’ defense and Houston’s offense are massive liabilities that Oklahoma City can exploit. It would be easier for the Thunder to reach the Western Conference Finals with this path rather than facing the winner of Denver and Minnesota in the second round.
Overall, the champs should do their best to claim the top seed regardless of seeding, yet their potentially easier playoff path may be a silver lining should San Antonio win the one seed.