Oklahoma City is the one seed for the third consecutive season and owns an excellent chance to repeat as champions because the bracket turned out perfectly. San Antonio, Denver and Minnesota are the three biggest threats in the West and all reside on the other side of the bracket. Therefore, the Thunder will only have to beat one of these teams to reach the NBA Finals. 

But the reigning champs have to take care of business in the early rounds before looking to the future. Which opponent should Oklahoma City want to face first? Here is a ranking of the four Western Conference play-in teams based on how tough they would be for the Thunder to eliminate in the first round. 

It’s always scary to face Stephen Curry because his three-point shooting can flip games. However, he was sidelined for two months with a knee injury and has only played four games since returning. The superstar is not in peak form yet. Cason Wallace and Luguentz Dort are also elite perimeter defenders with the screen navigation chops to chase Curry around the court and limit his production. 

It’s bleak for Golden State beyond Curry. The defense has been brittle since the All-Star break, especially at the point of attack. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Ajay Mitchell should get to their spots at will and rack up paint touches. 

To make matters worse, Kristaps Porzingis is seemingly a part-time player at this point. Oklahoma City can also have Chet Holmgren completely shut down the paint by aggressively sag off of Draymond Green. 

Overall, Golden State is not stout enough defensively or athletic enough to run with the Thunder. It’s the best matchup for the reigning champs of the four play-in teams. 

Portland is loaded with elite defenders and unsurprisingly ranks third in defensive rating since the All-Star break. Donovan Clingan and Robert Williams III are phenomenal rim protectors who anchor the defense, while Toumani Camara, Jrue Holiday, Sidy Cissoko and Matisse Thybulle excel on the perimeter. 

But the Blazers’ offense is simply too weak and inconsistent to push the champs. Portland struggles mightily to shoot perimeter jumpers efficiently, and the offense often stalls when Deni Avdija is not drawing double teams or free throws. Clingan’s offensive rebounding can also be somewhat neutralized by Isaiah Hartenstein matching his minutes, and the Blazers’ turnovers woes are a massive problem against a Thunder defense that thrives at forcing turnovers. 

Oklahoma City will receive bumps and bruises against an elite Portland defense that oozes length and physicality, but the Blazers do not have enough offensive firepower. 

Phoenix’s defense is physical and especially formidable when Mark Williams is on the court. He boasts a massive nine-foot-nine standing reach, so Williams can deter Oklahoma City’s drivers from getting to the hoop. And although the Suns’ perimeter defenders are not elite, they hustle and force deflections. 

On the other end, Phoenix ranks sixth in three-point attempt rate since the break and possesses great shooters like Collin Gillespie and Grayson Allen. The Suns may be able to steal a game or two by raining down triples and playing quality defense. 

As for flaws, the minutes sans Williams could be a bit rough defensively. Devin Booker also historically struggles to score efficiently against Oklahoma City’s defense, and Jalen Green is one of the least effective high-volume scorers in the NBA. 

Phoenix has played Oklahoma City decently this season and probably makes most of the games at least interesting. 

Kawhi Leonard averaged 27.9 points per game on 62.9% true shooting this season, which are career highs. The two-time Finals MVP is one of the few players who can get to his spots and effortlessly score against Oklahoma City’s defense. He also elevates his game in the playoffs, so Leonard is an extremely dangerous opponent. 

Meanwhile, Darius Garland and Bennedict Mathurin have combined to average 37.3 points and 8.9 assists per game since being traded to Los Angeles. Both players are capable of creating off the dribble versus the Thunder. It’s worth noting that Mathurin scored 27 points in Game 3 of the NBA Finals and 24 points in Game 7, so he has a history of occasionally exploding against a hyper-focused Oklahoma City defense. 

Kris Dunn and Derrick Jones Jr. are excellent defenders who can slow down Gilgeous-Alexander. The bench also features veterans like Bogdan Bogdanovic and Nicolas Batum who have extensive playoff experience. 

Now, Brook Lopez’s struggles to defend in space and Garland’s exploitable perimeter defense are areas that Oklahoma City will exploit. The Clippers’ reliance on two-point shots is also a red flag because the champs boast the best interior defense in the NBA. 

Overall, Los Angeles poses issues on both ends of the court and has a future Hall of Famer that can take over playoff games. Despite its flaws, the Clippers represents the toughest matchup of the play-in teams.