Injuries cripple rivals, young talent rises, and cap constraints loom. Oklahoma City faces a narrow, urgent window for championship glory.
The Thunder won the 2025 NBA championship and shot out to a 24-1 start this season. Conversations were held about Golden State’s regular season wins record not being safe. However, Oklahoma City owns a 14-10 record since Dec. 12 largely due to injuries decimating its rotation. The team currently looks mortal, sluggish and flawed on offense.
Now, the Thunder will probably resume its dominance once everyone gets healthy, but Sam Presti should acquire an impactful veteran at the Feb. 5 trade deadline. Maximizing Oklahoma City’s chances is crucial because this postseason may be the Thunder’s best chance at another title for the foreseeable future.
First, injuries have ravaged other contenders. Houston is diminished because Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams suffered season-ending injuries. Golden State lost Jimmy Butler to a torn ACL, while Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis are fixtures on the injury report for Dallas.
Denver has also been hit hard. Nikola Jokić was absent for the Nuggets’ past 16 games with the first significant knee injury of his career. Cameron Johnson and Christian Braun have combined to miss 54 games. Shams Charnaia of ESPN also reported on Jan. 29 that Aaron Gordon “will be re-evaluated in four to six weeks with a right hamstring strain.”
The veteran has dealt with numerous hamstring issues dating back to last postseason, which is concerning for a 30-year-old who mostly relies on athleticism and explosive movements. Even if Denver manages to reach the playoffs in decent shape, the team did not have time to gel with Johnson, and Gordon’s hamstrings will be under the spotlight.
Tyrese Haliburton is out for the season with a torn Achilles, while Jayson Tatum will not be close to 100% if he manages to return. Two major threats in the East are subsequently defanged.
Second, teams like San Antonio, Detroit, Houston and Orlando are young and very talented. This season is probably the worst they will be over the next five years barring injuries. Winning a championship before Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper approach their ceilings is especially key.
Third, rookie max extensions for Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren kick in this offseason, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s supermax extension begins in the 2027 offseason. Oklahoma City’s salary cap situation becomes difficult to manage with three max contracts, so sacrifices will have to be made to its depth. This season is very likely to be the Thunder’s best overall roster unless it strikes gold on numerous upcoming first-round picks.
Finally, Giannis Antetokounmpo’s days as a Buck are numbered. It’s logical for Milwaukee to wait until this offseason to trade its superstar because increased salary cap flexibility leads to more suitors. The 2026 NBA Draft order will also be set, and more future first-round picks become available to trade. If Antetokounmpo moves to the West, then Oklahoma City’s path to the NBA Finals becomes far more difficult.