Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's brilliance masks a critical offensive void.
After an excruciating loss to the Hornets in which the Thunder shot 36.6% from the field, Oklahoma City is now 6-6 over its past 12 games. Yikes!
Defense cannot be blamed for the majority of its recent issues because Oklahoma City has surrendered only 108.5 points per 100 possessions during this span. It’s certainly a dropoff from the first 25 games, but this figure would still be the best defensive rating in the NBA.
The Thunder’s offense has been relatively abysmal, though. It has scored 113.7 points per 100 possessions on 57.4% true shooting over the past 12 games, which would rank 20th and 23rd across the association per NBA.com.
The most concerning takeaway is Oklahoma City’s overreliance on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to carry the offense. According to Cleaning the Glass, the team produces 123.9 points per 100 possessions with Gilgeous-Alexander on the court compared to 111 points per 100 possessions when he rests. That’s a massive difference in production, especially since Mark Daigneault often plays the best offensive players (Ajay Mitchell, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Isaiah Joe, etc.) together during the non-Gilgeous-Alexander minutes.
Jalen Williams returning to his pre-injury level of play would definitely be a boon. He's shooting just 46.3% from the field and 31.3% from beyond the arc this season, and his wrist is clearly bothering him.
Overall, Oklahoma City is 24-1 when Gilgeous-Alexander shoots above the league average in effective field goal percentage and 5-6 when he shoots below the league average. He’s simply not allowed to have a bad game. While it’s logical that the Thunder performs worse when its superstar is not efficient, that gap in win percentage is far too great and speaks to the team’s fundamental offensive warts.
Sam Presti has 15 more games until the Feb 5. trade deadline to decide whether to make a trade or not. He could add on the margins and acquire a knockdown shooter like Sam Hauser. Or Presti could make a significant acquisition like Trey Murphy III, who is averaging 20.7 points per game on a reasonable long-term contract.
Either way, Oklahoma City needs to be active at the trade deadline and acquire a veteran who brings some combination of ball handling, playmaking, off-ball shooting, and self-created shot making. If Presti does not address the offensive blemishes, then the Thunder’s chances of repeating as champions take a big hit unless Jalen Williams rediscovers his pre-injury form.