A star's pinkie finger injury could significantly boost the Thunder's 2026 draft prospects, potentially landing them a coveted lottery pick.
According to ESPN’s Shams Charania, 76ers star Tyrese Maxey “has been diagnosed with a tendon injury in his right pinkie finger and will be re-evaluated in three weeks.” This timeline has March 31 as his re-evaluation date. Assuming he returns at this point, Maxey would miss Philadelphia’s next 10 games.
It’s a crushing blow given his production. Maxey is averaging 29 points and 6.7 assists per game while logging a league-leading 38.3 minutes per game. As for advanced metrics, he ranks fourth across the NBA in both Estimated Wins and Value Over Replacement Player. Philadelphia has also scored 116.9 points per 100 possessions with Maxey on the court compared to 109.3 points per 100 possessions without him. His impact is immense and worthy of an All-NBA selection.
Maxey’s injury came at a bad time because Paul George still has seven more games before his suspension concludes. Meanwhile, Feb. 26 was the last time Joel Embiid played. It’s still unclear when the former league MVP will suit up, although he is close to a return based on the reported timeline.
Due to the 76ers’ absences, there is a decent chance that the team goes something like 3-7 over its next ten games. Philadelphia’s realistic worst-case scenario is the play-in tournament because Milwaukee occupies the 11th seed and currently has seven more losses than the 76ers. However, losing in the play-in tournament would drop Philadelphia to the lottery.
What are the implications for the Thunder?
Oklahoma City owns a top-four protected first rounder via Philadelphia. Losing in the play-in tournament means the 76ers would have somewhere between the 11th and 14th-worst record. Here’s a look at the lottery odds for this range according to Tankathon. The red box is out of bounds for Oklahoma City because of the top-four protections, while the green box represents the percent chance of the Thunder getting the pick.
For example, if Philadelphia misses the playoffs and winds up with the 14th-worst record, then Oklahoma City would have a 97.6% chance of receiving the 14th overall pick.
And even if the 76ers wins its way through the play-in tournament and makes the playoffs, it means a first round matchup against Detroit, Boston, New York or Cleveland, who would all be heavily favored against Philadelphia.
This scenario probably leads to Oklahoma City securing a pick somewhere between the 15th and 18th overall pick. The 2026 NBA Draft is projected to be flush with talent, so the Thunder can still snag a prized prospect in the late teens.