Who will the Thunder face in the first round? Analyze potential matchups with Phoenix, Golden State, Portland, and a tricky Clippers battle.
The NBA Playoffs are still nearly two months away. The Oklahoma City Thunder still have 24 games remaining on their regular season schedule. So why am I wasting half a thousand words on projecting possible playoff opponents for the defending champs?
In a rare perfect storm of Western Conference seeding, it has already become fairly predictable as to how the top two teams and the four play-in teams are likely to shake out.
OKC and San Antonio are far and away ahead of the pack at the top of the West. Currently, the Thunder hold a 2.5 game edge over the Spurs for the #1 seed. But the #3 seed Houston Rockets are 8 games behind Oklahoma City and 5.5 games behind San Antonio. Unless an unforeseen total collapse happens over the final stretch of the schedule, it's safe to say OKC will finish as a top two seed. As a result, Mark Daigneault's squad will play either the #7 or #8 seed in the first round. Or in other words, one of the two play-in tournament winners.
This is where things get interesting. Typically, there would be a battle between teams around the 4-8 range trying to avoid the play-in and finish as a top six seed. On the other end, there would be a battle between teams around the 9-12 range trying to jump into the final couple play-in spots.
But this season, it seems clear the Thunder, Spurs, Rockets, Nuggets, Lakers and Timberwolves will finish as the safe six squads guaranteed a playoff berth. And it also seems apparent the tanking Grizzlies, Mavericks, Jazz, Kings and (non-tanking but just bad) Pelicans will finish as the bottom five cellar dwellers.
That leaves four mostly locked and loaded play-in teams.
Phoenix Suns. A playoff matchup would test the level of Team Canada friendship bonds Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Lu Dort have with known instigator Dillon Brooks. This series would be labeled as the champs versus the biggest surprise team of the NBA.
Golden State Warriors. This matchup would feel a bit like a passing of the torch from the 2010's dynasty to a possible 2020's dynasty. From the best point guard of the last era to the best point guard of this era. Though OKC fans would still likely be filled with anxiety due to the Warriors being the Ghost of Thunder Past.
Portland Trail Blazers. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, whatever you do if OKC beats the Blazers in the playoffs, do not wave goodbye to them. That didn't work out well for the team waving last team and ended up remarkably great for the team being waved to last time these two teams met in the postseason.
Los Angeles Clippers. The team most Thunder fans don't want to see in the playoffs. And not because Kawhi Leonard has played like one of the league's top 10 players this season. But because that would mean the unprotected Clippers 2026 1st rounder that OKC owns is not a lottery pick. The Shai Gilgeous-Alexander/Paul George storylines would be juicy, though.