Which 8 Players Would OKC Thunder Protect in Expansion Draft?

Expansion has been the talk of the NBA for the past few years, and it’s finally on the horizon. Brad Townsend of Dallas Morning News reported that the “NBA Board of Governors [is] likely to vote on expanding by two teams this summer and Las Vegas and Seattle are favored.” 

If the NBA Board of Governors approves, then the two new franchises will enter an expansion draft where they take turns poaching players from current franchises. However, existing teams can protect up to eight players from the draft and can only lose one player at most. It’s also worth noting that unrestricted free agents are ineligible to be selected, and attempting to poach a restricted free agent immediately transforms that player into an unrestricted free agent. 

The expansion draft will probably not take place until the 2027 offseason, but which eight players should the Oklahoma City Thunder protect if the draft hypothetically happened this offseason? 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren are no-brainers. Even mentioning their names in trade negotiations likely makes Sam Presti hang up the phone, so losing them for nothing is inconceivable. 

Ajay Mitchell and Cason Wallace deserve to be safeguarded. Mitchell is on a bargain contract and helps keep the bench afloat. Across 584 minutes without Gilgeous-Alexander on the court this season, Mitchell has averaged 20.1 points and 6.1 assists per 75 possessions. He’s one of the best two-way guards coming off the bench in the NBA, which explains why he is in the race for Sixth Man of the Year. Meanwhile, Wallace may earn All-Defensive First Team honors this season, and the Kentucky product is flashing growth as a scorer and playmaker. Mitchell and Wallace are 23 and 22 years old, respectively, so they could be on the Thunder for the next decade. 

Next, Isaiah Hartenstein should be shielded with the caveat that Oklahoma City declines his team option this offseason in order to sign him to a long-term contract. Hartenstein is an elite interior defender and rebounder who gives the Thunder’s offense a new dimension with his passing out of dribble handoffs. He’s the perfect center for this team and only 27 years old. 

Now it becomes extremely difficult with only two spots remaining and perhaps the entire roster worthy of protection. 

Aaron Wiggins gets the first slot. He’s a malleable offensive player who reliably spaces the court and creates his own shot in a pinch. Wiggins’ defense has drastically improved. Plus, his contract elevates him in this discussion. He’s earning $10.1 million this season and a combined $25.9 million across the next three seasons. That’s an absolute steal given his production and fit. It’s essentially a lottery pick’s rookie contract based on the percentage of the salary cap. 

The last spot could truly go in any number of directions. 

Jared McCain, Nikola Topić and Thomas Sorber are tantalizing young players on rookie contracts. McCain is the oldest of the trio at 21 years old. Luguentz Dort, Alex Caruso and Isaiah Joe are win-now veterans who play vital roles for the reigning champs. Losing any of them would sting. Jaylin Williams and Kenrich Williams are culture setters and leaders in the locker room. They also contribute quality minutes off the bench as reserves.  

It may be a controversial pick, but Sorber rounds out the group of protected players. The rookie has yet to make his NBA debut because he is recovering from a torn ACL. Additionally, he suffered a season-ending foot injury in his final college season, so his health will be a concern moving forward. 

However, Sorber projects to be an impactful rim protector with good touch around the basket and quality passing chops. This center archetype is difficult to find, and he has three years remaining on his rookie contract. Sorber could be the best backup center in the league once he gets healthy and adjusts to the NBA. The Georgetown product theoretically also allows Presti to move on from Hartenstein for salary cap purposes if it must be done because Sorber’s skill set significantly overlaps with Hartenstein’s. 

Finally, there is a strategy to this pick. If McCain gets poached, then Oklahoma City still has a backup point guard in Topić and a sharpshooter in Joe. The same logic applies if Topić or Joe must depart. Plus, the team is deep at guard with Gilgeous-Alexander, Wallace and Mitchell already protected. 

If an expansion team selects Dort, then Oklahoma City retains a pair of hyper-elite perimeter defenders in Wallace and Caruso. And vice versa, the same result occurs should Caruso get poached. 

Overall, an expansion draft would force the Thunder to lose a key player, but the team is built to withstand this scenario due to its incredible depth and abundance of first-round picks.