Wrist pain masked his potential. Now healthy, Jalen Williams' underlying stats reveal an impending scoring explosion and playmaking surge.
Jalen Williams valiantly played with a torn ligament in his right wrist during Oklahoma City’s championship run despite the potential long-term risks. His sacrifice led to the Thunder’s first title in franchise history. He underwent surgeries in July and October to address the injury, but Williams stated only recently that his wrist is starting to feel normal.
Here is what he said in a post-game interview after the Thunder’s victory over the Lakers on Feb. 9: “It feels great. The three weeks were actually great for me. That was the first time I had shot like that since April 8 of last year. My hand feels good…It’s honestly the best it has been since then.”
The fact that Williams’ shooting wrist was not somewhat healthy until last week provides key context to his box score struggles. He is currently averaging the lowest points per game since his rookie season and logging career lows in effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage. Williams’ scoring woes have been costly at times because Oklahoma City often relies on him to spearhead the offense when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander rests.
Although the box score has not praised Williams’ play this season, there are underlying stats via Basketball Index that generate plenty of optimism.
First, Williams is averaging 4.32 unassisted rim shot attempts per 75 possessions. That’s a 30% increase from his past two seasons, and this figure ranks 18th across the NBA this season among the 251 players who have logged at least 750 minutes. It’s highly encouraging that Williams is getting to the basket by himself at such an impressive rate. His efficiency at the rim has been middling, but it should improve now that his wrist “feels great”.
Second, the Santa Clara product is producing a career high 0.279 free throw attempts per field goal attempt. It’s still only a tad above league average, so he has plenty of room for growth in this department. However, it’s promising to see Williams increase his trips to the charity stripe because free throws are extremely valuable.
For example, a three-point attempt from an elite shooter who sinks 40% of his triples is seen as a phenomenal outcome for the offense, while fouling a lumbering center who only makes 60% of his free throws is viewed as a decent outcome for the defense. But both scenarios lead to 1.2 points per possession on average. That’s the inherent value of free throws.
Finally, Basketball Index defines high-value assists as assists that resulted in three pointers, shots at the rim or free throws. Williams’ 5.36 high-value assists per 75 possessions this season is a career high and ranks 43rd among the 251 players who have logged at least 750 minutes. It’s a 24.6% increase from his 2024 season and a 9.1% increase from last season. Williams’ growth as a playmaker should pay huge dividends down the road, especially during the non-Gilgeous-Alexander minutes.
Overall, these underlying stats combined with Williams’ shooting wrist finally getting healthy mean he may explode down the stretch.