Oklahoma City faces a high-stakes financial crossroads. Rising salary cap pressures and looming contract extensions could force Sam Presti to dismantle the league's most promising young trio.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have a problem that most NBA teams would love to have. They have too many really good players.
And the problem is, eventually, they are all going to want to get paid. That is where things could get interesting for Oklahoma City.
ESPN’s Ben Golliver and others recently looked at the teams with the best three year futures in the NBA, and while he obviously sees plenty to like about what the Thunder are building to rank them at the top, he also believes the team could eventually be forced to make a major decision.
“Oklahoma City will shift from a big three to a big two because of second apron concerns. The Thunder preserved their star trio of Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams and Holmgren this summer by executing a series of cap-clearing trades, but more financial pain awaits next offseason,” Golliver wrote.
“Gilgeous-Alexander’s salary will spike in the 2027-28 season, forcing the Thunder to make sharp cuts to their supporting cast or consider moving Williams or Holmgren. Constructing a new-and-improved version of the 2012 James Harden trade would help Oklahoma City maintain its depth and remain focused on its long-term sustainability.”
That is a pretty scary thought for Thunder fans. Not because it has to happen, but because there is a legitimate financial argument behind it.
Oklahoma City spent much of this offseason doing everything they could to keep its core together. The Thunder made difficult trades involving Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe, among others, to create financial flexibility and get away from the second apron.
In other words, the Thunder didn’t choose Chet Holmgren or Jalen Williams.
They chose all three.
For now.
That distinction is important because Oklahoma City still has time to figure this out. The front office has always been incredibly intentional about building this roster, and there is no reason to believe it will suddenly make a panic move.
There is also a chance the young players already on the roster make this whole conversation easier. If players like Nikola Topic, Thomas Sorber, Aday Mara and Bennett Stirtz develop into legitimate rotation pieces, the Thunder won’t have to spend as much money finding help around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams.
That could become extremely important.
Because the biggest question isn’t necessarily whether the Thunder can afford Holmgren and Williams.
It’s whether they can afford Holmgren, Williams and Gilgeous-Alexander while still putting a championship-caliber team around them.
That’s where things get complicated.
Gilgeous-Alexander’s salary is going to jump significantly in the 2027-28 season. At that point, Oklahoma City could find themselves staring at an uncomfortable decision. Keep the three stars together and potentially lose even more depth, or trade one of Williams or Holmgren and try to rebuild the supporting cast around the remaining two.
And if that day comes, the Thunder can’t afford to get it wrong.
Golliver’s reference to the 2012 James Harden trade is particularly interesting because Oklahoma City would need something much different this time around. If the Thunder ever decide they have to move Holmgren or Williams, it can’t simply be about saving money.
They would need a massive return.
That’s what makes this situation so fascinating.
The Thunder just won a championship. They have Gilgeous-Alexander, Holmgren, and Williams under contract. They have a front office that has stockpiled young talent and draft picks for years.
This isn’t a team that needs to break itself up. But the NBA’s salary rules don’t care how well a team is built.
At some point, Oklahoma City may have to decide how much it is willing to sacrifice to keep the entire trio together.
Maybe the Thunder find a way to make it work. Maybe their young players develop enough to make the financial squeeze manageable. Or maybe Golliver is right and, eventually, the Thunder have to turn their big three into a big two.
For now, though, there is no reason to rush that decision. The Thunder finally have the team they spent years trying to build.
They should enjoy it.
Because if the financial reality eventually forces Oklahoma City to choose between Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams, that’s a decision that could shape the franchise for the next decade.
