Blazers snatch a crucial win, narrowing the gap for the eighth seed. A dramatic showdown looms, with the playoff race heating up.
The Portland Trail Blazers got a significant win over the LA Clippers on Tuesday night in a game that truly kept this season alive for Portland. Had the Blazers lost, they would have fallen 2.5 games behind the Clippers with only five games left to play, which would have been an awfully steep climb.
Instead, with the win, Portland now sits just a half-game back with five games remaining and still has another head-to-head matchup against LA on the schedule in the second-to-last game of the season.
So not only did Tuesday’s victory move Portland that much closer to overtaking the Clippers for the No. 8 seed, but it also ensured the Blazers did not bury themselves in a hole that would have been too deep to escape. With only a half-game separating these teams, one more direct matchup still to come, and several other important games on both sides, the race for the eighth seed is now much easier to analyze and project.
As a reminder, the No. 7 seed is effectively out of reach for both teams, and it would still be somewhat surprising if either side fell all the way to No. 10, where Golden State currently sits. If Portland had lost Tuesday night, that danger would have become much more real. But with the win, this has now become what it has long felt like it would be, which is direct fight between the Blazers and Clippers for the eighth and ninth seeds.
7. Suns: 42-34
8. Clippers: 39-37
9. Trail Blazers: 39-38
10. Warriors: 36-39
Looking ahead, things are going to get very interesting.
Despite Tankathon ranking the Clippers and Trail Blazers fairly similarly in strength of schedule the rest of the way, the shape of those schedules matters more than the raw number. For Portland, the path is difficult in the middle. The upcoming game against the New Orleans Pelicans and the regular-season finale against the Sacramento Kings are both matchups in which the Blazers should be favored.
But sandwiched between them is a brutal road back-to-back against the Denver Nuggets and San Antonio Spurs, two teams still fighting for playoff positioning and likely to be highly motivated.
The Clippers have a similarly balanced schedule on paper. They also face San Antonio and Sacramento, but instead of Denver they get Oklahoma City. They also have games against Dallas and Golden State, two matchups that, much like Sacramento, project as more manageable than the toughest games on the slate.
Then, of course, there is the rematch between the Clippers and Blazers on Friday, April 10, a game that will be both teams’ second-to-last of the regular season and could very well end up being the biggest game of the year for either side.
Tuesday night’s result was the biggest win of the season so far for Portland given the standings implications, but that April 10 showdown could carry even more weight if the race remains tight, and it should. There are only a handful of games left, and the margin between these teams is still razor thin.
So while the overall strength of schedule may be close, the reality is that the Clippers still hold a slight structural edge simply because they have one more game left to play. LA has six remaining after Tuesday night while Portland has only five.
If you break it down by games each team should be expected to win, the Clippers appear to have three remaining matchups in that category while the Blazers have only two. That does not guarantee anything, of course, because the season rarely plays out exactly as expected.
But if both teams mostly handle the games they should win and stumble in the tougher spots, the Clippers would project to finish with 42 wins while the Blazers would land at 41. That is why this race feels destined to go down to the wire.
And that is what makes the No. 8 seed so important. Finishing eighth would give Portland two chances to win and make the playoffs instead of one. The Blazers could either win the 7 versus 8 play-in game and lock up the seventh seed, or lose that first game and still have another opportunity against the winner of the 9 versus 10 matchup.
April 10 is going to be the game that may decide play-in seeding for these two teams, but a lot is going to happen between now and then as well.