Could the Blazers climb to the No. 8 seed, or is it too late?
The Portland Trail Blazers have already done enough to secure a spot in the Western Conference Play-In Tournament, but with only a handful of regular-season games remaining, the more important question is no longer whether they are in. It is where they will land. Entering the stretch run, Portland sits ninth in the West at 38-38, behind the LA Clippers in eighth at 39-36, ahead of the Golden State Warriors in 10th at 36-39, and still well back of the Phoenix Suns in seventh at 41-33. That makes a rise to seventh highly unlikely, while also making the real fight one centered on the difference between the eighth and ninth seeds.
That distinction is massive because of how the NBA’s Play-In Tournament is structured. The No. 7 seed hosts the No. 8 seed, with the winner claiming the conference’s seventh playoff spot. The loser of that game still gets another opportunity, hosting the winner of the No. 9 vs. No. 10 matchup for the No. 8 seed. Meanwhile, the No. 9 seed hosts the No. 10 seed in an elimination game, meaning the ninth seed has to win twice just to reach the playoffs. The eighth seed only has to win once and still has a second chance if it loses the first game.
That is why Portland’s push for eighth matters so much. If the Blazers finish ninth, they would at least open the Play-In at home against Golden State, but there would be no margin for error. Lose once and the season is over. Win that game and Portland would then likely have to go on the road for a winner-take-all shot at the eighth seed. If the Blazers can climb to eighth instead, the path becomes much friendlier. They would open on the road, but they would have two chances to get in and, if they lost the 7-8 game, would come back home for one final opportunity to claim the last playoff spot.
That is what makes Friday’s loss to Dallas sting even more. In a race this tight, every game matters, and dropping one to a team Portland should have handled could end up being the difference between needing one win and needing two. The Clippers have also made things more difficult by surging at the right time. They have won five straight and created some breathing room in front of Portland, which means the Blazers no longer fully control their path to the eighth seed. Portland still needs to take care of its own business, but it also needs help from elsewhere if it wants to jump LA before the regular season closes.
The good news for Portland is that it has at least built some separation from the Warriors. The Blazers own a cushion over Golden State and continue to strengthen their grip on the No. 9 position. That matters because it gives Portland a better chance to host the 9-10 Play-In game if it cannot catch the Clippers for eighth. Hosting that first game is not the ideal outcome compared with reaching eighth, but it is still far preferable to sliding to 10th and facing a road elimination game right out of the gate.
So while Portland may have already clinched entry into the postseason’s mini-tournament, the work is far from finished. The Suns are likely too far ahead to catch, and the Warriors are still chasing from behind, but the most realistic and meaningful target remains the Clippers and the eighth seed. That is the line the Blazers should be focused on over these final few games. Eighth gives them breathing room.
Ninth gives them pressure. And with the playoffs almost here, that difference could decide whether Portland’s season extends beyond the Play-In or ends in it.