Win guarantees the No. 8 seed, offering two chances to reach the playoffs. Lose, and the path becomes perilous, demanding perfection.
The stage is set, and the Portland Trail Blazers are now in control of their own destiny. After an emphatic win over the LA Clippers on Friday night, it all comes down to Sunday’s regular-season finale against the Sacramento Kings.
If the Blazers win that game, they lock up the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference. If they lose, not all is lost, but they would then need the Clippers to also lose to the Golden State Warriors in order to stay at No. 8. Portland and LA are both 41-40 entering the final day, but the Blazers hold the tiebreaker after beating the Clippers on Friday.
And the difference between No. 8 and No. 9 is massive. In the NBA Play-In Tournament, the No. 7 and No. 8 seeds get two chances to make the playoffs, while the No. 9 and No. 10 seeds are in sudden death. The No. 7 seed hosts the No. 8 seed, and the winner of that game becomes the No. 7 playoff seed. The loser is still alive and gets one more chance. Meanwhile, the No. 9 seed hosts the No. 10 seed, and the loser of that game is eliminated on the spot.
So if Portland gets the No. 8 seed, the Blazers would go on the road to face the Phoenix Suns in the 7-versus-8 game. If Portland wins that one, it becomes the No. 7 seed in the West. If Portland loses, it would still get another opportunity, this time against the winner of the 9-versus-10 game between the Clippers and Warriors. Because the loser of the 7-versus-8 game hosts that final play-in game, Portland would host that matchup if it entered as the No. 8 seed and lost to Phoenix.
That’s the safety net. It is not just one win to get in. It is two chances, and that matters a ton at this stage of the year.
If Portland falls to No. 9, everything becomes much more difficult. The Blazers would have to beat Golden State in a do-or-die game just to stay alive, and then would have to turn around and beat the loser of Suns versus Clippers to grab the No. 8 seed. That means two straight wins with no room for error. That is why Sunday’s game is so significant. The No. 8 seed gives Portland a buffer for one bad night. The No. 9 seed does not.
From the bigger-picture view, this is a huge moment for Portland. The Blazers have battled through adversity, developed over the course of the season, and put themselves in position to play meaningful games in mid-April. Now it comes down to one last regular-season game. Beat Sacramento and the Blazers secure the far better path. Lose, and they are suddenly relying on help.
That’s why Friday’s win over the Clippers was so important. It did not clinch anything by itself, but it gave Portland control.