The status of Victor Wembanyama will completely dictate how the rest of the Portland-San Antonio series plays out.
After evening up the series 1-1 on Tuesday night, the Portland Trail Blazers now have home-court advantage in three of the next four games against the San Antonio Spurs in this opening-round series. But the biggest storyline in this opening slate, and arguably in the playoffs overall to this point, is the availability of Victor Wembanyama moving forward.
He exited Tuesday’s game after playing less than 12 minutes with what appeared to be, at minimum, a concussion after he made contact with Jrue Holiday and hit the floor hard, landing face-first as his head struck the hardwood. And obviously, his absence was a huge reason the Blazers were able to pull out the close victory over the Spurs.
But now the big question is: What’s his status moving forward after later being officially diagnosed with a concussion?
For starters, what we do know is that, per NBA guidelines, Wembanyama cannot return to full participation for 48 hours, but can resume gradual activity in 24 hours as long as his symptoms don’t worsen. From there, there are a couple of benchmarks he has to clear while progressing through concussion protocol. He has to be symptom-free before he’s cleared to play, and he’ll also need clearance from the Spurs’ team doctor in consultation with the league’s protocol director.
So while, in theory, given there are two days between Game 2 and Game 3, he could be back for Game 3 and his Game 2 absence could be the extent of it, the general history of injuries like this suggests that the more immediate concern for San Antonio is his status for Game 3, which at this point is truly in jeopardy. From there, Games 4 and 5 feel like more realistic return points based on how these situations have typically played out, though every concussion is obviously different.
And so there’s a real opportunity here for the Blazers to beat a shorthanded Spurs team in Game 3 if Wembanyama cannot play and go up 2-1 in the series with a ton of momentum.
Wembanyama is expected to undergo more testing on Wednesday, and there will, of course, be plenty of updates on his status along the way as he works through the different benchmarks and as Game 3 gets closer.
But this is, without a doubt, the biggest story of the playoffs right now, and obviously, his availability will directly dictate how the next handful of games go for both the Blazers and the Spurs.