The Western Conference has not been favorable for every top-four seed in recent history.
It’s easy to look at the Western Conference playoff bracket, see the higher seeds, and assume the better regular season team is going to win each series. On paper, that’s usually the safe bet. The stronger record, the better point differential, the deeper resume over 82 games. All of it naturally points people toward the favorite, which is not good for the Portland Trail Blazers.
But recent history is a reminder that the Western Conference playoffs rarely unfold that cleanly.
Over the last five years alone, the Western Conference Finals matchup has featured plenty of surprises.
- 2025: No. 1 vs No. 6
- 2024: No. 5 vs No. 3
- 2023: No. 1 vs No. 7
- 2022: No. 3 vs No. 4
- 2021: No. 2 vs No. 4
That doesn’t automatically mean the Blazers are about to shock the San Antonio Spurs in the first round. San Antonio has been the better team all season, and there’s a reason Portland is viewed as a clear underdog entering the series. The Spurs have earned that respect. They’ve been more consistent, more complete, and more proven over the course of the year.
But that still doesn’t mean Portland should be dismissed outright.
That’s the beauty, and the volatility, of playoff basketball. A seven-game series is its own ecosystem. Matchups matter. Health matters. Shot-making swings things. Foul trouble changes rotations. One hot night can steal a game. One bad shooting stretch can flip home-court advantage. And once pressure starts to build, especially on the favorite, a series can start to feel very different than it did before Game 1.
That’s especially true in the Western Conference, where recent history has shown us that expectations often get shattered. Teams that look untouchable on paper suddenly look vulnerable. Teams that seem a tier below suddenly find a rhythm, win a game or two, and force everyone to take them seriously.
For Portland, that’s the lane.
The Blazers don’t have to be the better team on paper to make this interesting. They don’t even have to control the entire series. They just need enough things to break right to create pressure. Steal one game, make San Antonio uncomfortable, and suddenly the dynamic changes. That doesn’t guarantee anything, but it does make the path feel a lot more real than people might assume at first glance.
So yes, it’s fair to pick the Spurs. It’s fair to point to the standings, the regular-season body of work, and the obvious talent gap in certain areas. But it’s also fair to acknowledge that the Western Conference playoffs have repeatedly shown us that assumptions don’t always hold up.
And because of that, the Blazers shouldn’t be counted out before the series even starts.