Cameron Leuthy

cleuthy@RoundtableIO

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Analyst

Semi-retired federal budget, national security analyst. Played full-court hoops into my 50s but back, knee betrayed me. At 5'7" I wasn't very good but I loved every minute. Miss the game, the fellas. Love to talk Wizards, expansion to bring back the Sonics. So old I watched the Bullets-Sonics finals

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Wizards Balancing Act -- Prioritizing Player Development and Becoming More Competitive

Three goals for the season: "Make sure we continue to develop the entire roster ... We want to increase the moments of competitive basketball that play in the season ... and be in more competitive situations [and] Take meaningful strides as an organization towards ... sustained success. Will Dawkins, September 24 press conference But what will the product look like on the floor for the first 20 games? Dawkins talked about having a lot of players that can initiate and the proliferation of that skill throughout the lineup gives coach Keefe "a lot of optionality for lineups and for minutes when Trae Young isn't on the floor. The Wizards organization has been sanguine about the absences of a pure point guard to backup Young and delighted about having three good bigs instead of just one for much of the past season. How could Keefe manage the minutes? Will some players get 10-12 minutes one night and DNP/CD the next? Given the signs that Keefe will be experimenting beyond training camp into the first 20 games I'd say that the odds the lineup will be unsettled is very high. Seeing who plays well with whom is hard to judge in camp/practice. Preseason games help but there are only four. Given the changes to the roster, likley changes to the offense and defensive schemes, injury/age management, player improvement over the summer, and high-quality roster depth, it's almost a guarantee that some players will be unhappy (some nights) about PT during the first 20 games. Given the great depth Keefe now has at his disposal I expect 10-11 players to get PT frequently. Check out this example (remember minutes have to total 240) You'll notices that in this example, minutes for AD and Champagnie only total 35 and that minutes for Sarr and Ayton total 51 -- more than 48. This means that Sarr and Ayton might share the floor some and that Kyshawn might be at a small-ball 4 sometimes, just like Champagnie. As the team becomes confident that Sarr's foot and conditioning are 100%, his minutes will increase. At the wing, see the minutes balance between George, AJ, and Coulibaly minutes. That make sense to the degree they are interchangeable. George is the more proven two-way player, Coulibaly, the better on-ball defender, and AJ, like all rookies will have some struggles on the defensive end. And don't be surprised if Tre Johnson gets plenty of run at the 2-guard. I expect his defense will improve from his rookie year. Bub Carrington may get shorted on minutes to start the year but don't be surprised if he stays ready and gets his chance, especially if a spark is needed on offense in any given game. Same with Middleton -- you never know when Keefe wants to teach the younger wings something and puts Kris in to show how it's done. Can't wait for the season to start!Sep 25, 2026

WizardsRoundtable

Wizards Path to Improvement – Part 2, Rotations

Players like predictable PT and rotations. They don’t like starting lineup changes based on the opponent. Most coaches use a rotation of around 9 players. Most coaches like to keep a starter or two on the floor at all times. The rare coach that routinely puts out an all-bench lineup is brave. Hubie Brown did it successfully with Memphis in the 2003-04 season. The Wizards will have more competition in this training camp/preseason than in a while. That’s due to the unprecedented quality of the depth on the team. Camp will also include the introduction of new or modified offensive and defensive schemes and, building on summer runs, integrating several new players including Anthony Davis (zero games with Wiz last year, Trae Young (just 5 games), Deandre Ayton, Tre Mann, and Felix Okpara. All these variables will factor into who starts, who comes off the bench, and who gets very little playing time. Additionally, the rotations at the start of the season will probably not be the rotations after 20 games. Even though the Wizards will be trying to win, there will be more experimentation early on as compared to 20-25 games into the schedule. Seeing 9 or 10 players a night is highly likely. Coach Keefe has 240 minutes to divide up among 15 players (after the addition of Gill) on regular contracts and one healthy 2-way contract (Okpara) as of today. Every lineup has strengths and weaknesses. The Wizards (like most teams) have a roster of players that are good at defense or good at offense but not many that are good at both. As Matt Modderno, Greg Finberg, Domo, and others have pointed out, there are two “positions” where the lineup questions particularly salient: who starts at the second wing position (assuming Dybantsa is the other starter); and who backs up Trae at the 1. And the decisions Keefe makes for one of those positions will affect the other. There are combo guards and wings with ball handling skills that can initiate the offense on the roster but no true PG behind Trae. Keefe and his staff have had a chance to watch Kyshawn George, Will Riley, Bub Carrington, and Bilal Coulibaly run the offense over the past year, but none really with the new offense installed and we don’t know how different the new offense will be to the schemes used last year. But the additions of AD and Trae surely require changes. They are all capable passers. George is the best defender (so far). His defense liabilities have been a tendency to get in foul trouble and sometimes handling quick players on the perimeter. You can easily make an argument to have him in that role. But he also could be the best backup for Anthony Davis at the 4. George looked smoother and stronger in summer runs. Do the Wiz want Kyshawn to fill both roles? But if you want him to back up Young, and if you want to manage Young’s minutes, does that mean Kyshawn doesn’t start and Coulibaly does instead? Option 1. Option 1 is pretty basic. George is the backup PG and no one else plays that role. The timing for substitutions is notional. Per NBA rules, if neither team calls a timeout before 6:59 remains in a quarter, the official scorer stops play at the first dead ball and charges a mandatory timeout to the home team. Notice the early substitution for Davis – he hasn’t played since January, he's got an injury history, and he may take some time to round into shape. With this rotation, there’s always a starter on the floor, AD doesn’t have to play the 5 (he doesn't want to). There’s usually Young, Johnson, or George on the floor for 3PT shooting, and there’s usually Coulibaly or George on the floor for defensive length. Ayton is prominent – they may need to manage Sarr’s minutes post-foot surgery. The rotation is designed to manage minutes for AD, Sarr, and Young. Option 2. Change the starters – Coulibaly for George. Have George as the backup PF and backup PG. An 11-player rotation makes it easier to manage minutes for players on restrictions and allows Coach to minimize reliance on young players for long stints. The problems with this rotation are: a) Having George play two very different positions; and b) Less shooting in the starting lineup. That could mean more shots for AD and Trae. The hierarchy of shots was discussed by Locked On Wizards Ben Strober and Abdullah Ayubi with SI’s Henry J. Brown. I agree, early on AD is going to be given his share of shots. Option 3. An 11-player rotation. Carrington is the primary backup at PG with some run for Riley. Option 3 gets tricky in a few ways: a) Does Dybantsa get enough run? b) Is Carrington up to the challenge? c) Do you trust Riley to run the offense? I’ve seen Carrington working hard this summer but there are questions: a) Can he learn to take better angles defensively? B) Can he improve finishing at the rim/through traffic? There are endless combinations to go into the rotations this year and training camp will allow Keefe lots of new data points -- who plays better with whom? But I expect the experimentation to continue in the first 20-25 games of the schedule. If you want to see how much fun it is to try to manage minutes on a team this deep, check out:Sep 17, 2026

WizardsRoundtable

2026-2027 Wizards Path to Improvement – Part I

The Wizards have three players that played significant minutes and shot better than 35% from 3PT range last year (Bub Carrington at nearly 41%, Kyshawn George, 38.1%, and Tre Johnson at 35.8%. They added Trae Young, a career 35.2% shooter and have players that could improve their shooting percentages (Sarr, Coulibaly), but overall, there aren’t enough good shooters (among those likely to log significant minutes – I’m omitting Tre Mann for example) on the projected 2026-27 roster. That means running a 5-out offense won’t be the base scheme or a good idea in general. It means the offense will depend on mid-range and rim attempts. That means lots of P&R, elbow screens, pin downs, back cuts, and player movement, not just ball movement, not just DHO up top to hunt and open look from 3PT range. It also means (especially given the youth on the roster) that the Wizards should be a running team. Last season, they were 6th overall in pace, something Coach Keefe pushed for routinely. That ranking is remarkable given they were a poor rebounding team – 26th overall. You can’t run if you don’t finish the defensive possession with a rebound. Good news – adding Anthony Davis should be a huge help on the defensive boards -- he’s averaged 8 a game for his career. Not only on his own but because Alex Sarr (7.4 rebounds/game) had limited help on the boards last season (except when Justin Champaignie (5.6 rebounds/game) was allowed to play). Two good rebounders on the floor have a synergistic effect on team rebounding, especially on preventing offensive boards by opponents. Related is the poor perimeter defense last season. Part of the reason Sarr had such gaudy shot-blocking stats last year was because the Wiz gave up so much dribble penetration. When Sarr had to try to clean that up, it gave room for opponents to crash the offensive boards without much resistance – the Wizards were dead last at 13.1 offensive rebounds given up per game last year. So, the Wizards need to run this year to generate early offense to make up for the lack of three-point shooters. They need to improve perimeter defense and defensive rebounding to do that. In the half-court, they need lots of movement, also to make up for the lack of 3PT shooting. Training camp is likely going to emphasize not only new offensive and defensive schemes to integrate AD and Trae, but lots of conditioning work. The depth on the squad, combined with the youth, will allow Keefe significant flexibility when it comes to rotations. Those rotations may not be nailed down until around game 20. Players like predictable PT and timing but they may not get it right away. Players may be on the floor for 10 minutes one game and 20 the next. There’s likely to be some effort to not overwork AD and Trae, especially when back-to-back games are on the calendar. That will also affect rotations. More on rotations and other challenges in my next post.Sep 10, 2026

WizardsRoundtable