Wizards Path to Improvement – Part 2, Rotations

Players like predictable PT and rotations. They don’t like starting lineup changes based on the opponent. Most coaches use a rotation of around 9 players. Most coaches like to keep a starter or two on the floor at all times. The rare coach that routinely puts out an all-bench lineup is brave. Hubie Brown did it successfully with Memphis in the 2003-04 season. The Wizards will have more competition in this training camp/preseason than in a while. That’s due to the unprecedented quality of the depth on the team. Camp will also include the introduction of new or modified offensive and defensive schemes and, building on summer runs, integrating several new players including Anthony Davis (zero games with Wiz last year, Trae Young (just 5 games), Deandre Ayton, Tre Mann, and Felix Okpara. All these variables will factor into who starts, who comes off the bench, and who gets very little playing time. Additionally, the rotations at the start of the season will probably not be the rotations after 20 games. Even though the Wizards will be trying to win, there will be more experimentation early on as compared to 20-25 games into the schedule. Seeing 9 or 10 players a night is highly likely.

Coach Keefe has 240 minutes to divide up among 15 players (after the addition of Gill) on regular contracts and one healthy 2-way contract (Okpara) as of today. Every lineup has strengths and weaknesses. The Wizards (like most teams) have a roster of players that are good at defense or good at offense but not many that are good at both.

As Matt Modderno, Greg Finberg, Domo, and others have pointed out, there are two “positions” where the lineup questions particularly salient: who starts at the second wing position (assuming Dybantsa is the other starter); and who backs up Trae at the 1. And the decisions Keefe makes for one of those positions will affect the other.

There are combo guards and wings with ball handling skills that can initiate the offense on the roster but no true PG behind Trae. Keefe and his staff have had a chance to watch Kyshawn George, Will Riley, Bub Carrington, and Bilal Coulibaly run the offense over the past year, but none really with the new offense installed and we don’t know how different the new offense will be to the schemes used last year. But the additions of AD and Trae surely require changes.

They are all capable passers. George is the best defender (so far). His defense liabilities have been a tendency to get in foul trouble and sometimes handling quick players on the perimeter. You can easily make an argument to have him in that role. But he also could be the best backup for Anthony Davis at the 4. George looked smoother and stronger in summer runs. Do the Wiz want Kyshawn to fill both roles? But if you want him to back up Young, and if you want to manage Young’s minutes, does that mean Kyshawn doesn’t start and Coulibaly does instead? 

Option 1. 

Option 1 is pretty basic. George is the backup PG and no one else plays that role. The timing for substitutions is notional. Per NBA rules, if neither team calls a timeout before 6:59 remains in a quarter, the official scorer stops play at the first dead ball and charges a mandatory timeout to the home team. 

Notice the early substitution for Davis – he hasn’t played since January, he's got an injury history, and he may take some time to round into shape. With this rotation, there’s always a starter on the floor, AD doesn’t have to play the 5 (he doesn't want to). There’s usually Young, Johnson, or George on the floor for 3PT shooting, and there’s usually Coulibaly or George on the floor for defensive length. Ayton is prominent – they may need to manage Sarr’s minutes post-foot surgery. The rotation is designed to manage minutes for AD, Sarr, and Young.

Option 2. Change the starters – Coulibaly for George. Have George as the backup PF and backup PG. An 11-player rotation makes it easier to manage minutes for players on restrictions and allows Coach to minimize reliance on young players for long stints. 

The problems with this rotation are: a) Having George play two very different positions; and b) Less shooting in the starting lineup. That could mean more shots for AD and Trae. The hierarchy of shots was discussed by Locked On Wizards Ben Strober and Abdullah Ayubi with SI’s Henry J. Brown. I agree, early on AD is going to be given his share of shots.

Option 3.  An 11-player rotation. Carrington is the primary backup at PG with some run for Riley. 

Option 3 gets tricky in a few ways: a) Does Dybantsa get enough run? b) Is Carrington up to the challenge? c) Do you trust Riley to run the offense?

I’ve seen Carrington working hard this summer but there are questions: a) Can he learn to take better angles defensively? B) Can he improve finishing at the rim/through traffic?

There are endless combinations to go into the rotations this year and training camp will allow Keefe lots of new data points -- who plays better with whom? But I expect the experimentation to continue in the first 20-25 games of the schedule. If you want to see how much fun it is to try to manage minutes on a team this deep, check out: