Washington Wizards' Trade for Deandre Ayton Adds Upside, Not Risk

Despite materializing into a polarizing player around the league, there's reason to be happy that the Washington Wizards acquired an experienced big man as the third in the rotation.

At first glance, Deandre Ayton doesn't move the needle if you're thinking of him as a franchise centerpiece or even a starter. We've already seen him as a full-time starter, and that's honestly not that exciting anymore, to say the least. But as a guy playing 18-20 minutes a night, giving you around 12 points and 8 rebounds while anchoring the second unit? Now we're talking.

The best part of this move is the contract. Washington gets Ayton on an $8 million expiring deal. That's incredible value when you look around the league. Robert Williams and Mitchell Robinson are making around $15 million per year in their new deals. Ayton is making nearly half that, and he's still a proven starting caliber center. Outside of centers still on rookie contracts, there aren't many players at his position making less.

This trade also says something about the Wizards' front office. They could have signed someone like Nick Richards or Andre Drummond and called it a day. Instead, Will Dawkins went out and bought low again. Buy Low Dawkins is forever stuck in Black Friday mode, and honestly, I'm here for it.

Would Dawkins have drafted Ayton coming out of Arizona? Probably not. Ayton's reputation and questions about his motor don't really fit the type of player Dawkins has targeted. But I think he's betting on the culture Washington is building. We saw a similar gamble with Cam Whitmore. Ayton is at a crossroads in his career. He's entering a contract year, and if he wants another big payday, or even to stay in the league, he'll have to embrace a winning role, buy into the team, and prove he can contribute consistently.

Ayton owns career averages of 10.2 rebounds per game and has posted six straight seasons averaging double digit rebounds. The Wizards ranked 26th in total rebounds and 27th in defensive rebounds last season, making this one of their biggest weaknesses. Ayton has also ranked above the 80th percentile in defensive rebound percentage for four consecutive years, giving Washington an immediate upgrade in an area they desperately needed help.

Offensively, he's one of the league's best finishers around the basket. Last season he converted 80.3% of his attempts at the rim, ranking in the 98th percentile across the NBA. He also led the league in lob finishes, with the immense help of Luka, and has quietly become a really solid screener, creating opportunities for teammates while thriving as a pick and roll finisher. Those skills should fit seamlessly alongside Trae Young, one of the NBA's best floor generals and dunk assist leaders. 

Defensively, Ayton brings size, rebounding, and playoff experience to a young frontcourt. He gives Washington another legitimate body alongside Alex Sarr and provides insurance should the Wizards move on from Anthony Davis. 

The best part? There is almost no downside. Just like the Trae Young trade, the Wizards didn't give up much to make this happen. If Ayton thrives, Washington gets tremendous value and could even resign him. If it doesn't work out, they simply let him walk after the season. 

Low risk. High upside. That's exactly the kind of move rebuilding teams should be making, and it's why I think this Deandre Ayton trade is one of the sneakiest good moves of the offseason.

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