Bub Carrington Experiment Shouldn't Be Completely Ruled Out Yet

Bub Carrington has had a peculiar start to his NBA career as he now finds himself entering a big year where many are expecting a jump from his disappointing sophomore year. It feels strange saying that about a player who is still only 21 years old, but expectations around Bub have really changed in a short period of time.

A lot of Wizards fans adored Bub after his rookie year. We gravitated toward his personality, his confidence and his charisma. After his impressive rookie Summer League, some of us were already calling him a steal. Then Year 2 happened. By November and December, some of that excitement had already turned into sheer frustration so much so that some Wizards fans wanted Bub traded. In short, Bub simply didn't play up to expectations, and by the end of the season, it was fair to call his sophomore campaign a disappointment.

But disappointment doesn't mean I'm ready to give up on him.

Let's start with Bub’s strengths. Bub can shoot, and has the makings of a possible 3 point specialist. Bub shot 40.8% from three on 5.0 attempts per game last season, a massive improvement from the 33.9% he shot as a rookie. Shooting above 40% on solid volume gives Bub a skill that NBA teams are always looking for.

He's also comfortable shooting off the dribble. Bub has always shown confidence pulling up from three or getting into his midrange jumper, and at his size, he can elevate over smaller guards.

Then there's something that even the biggest Bub deniers can’t strip away from him, durability. Bub played all 82 games in each of his first two seasons. That's 164 consecutive regular season appearances to begin his NBA career. 

However, and most importantly, Bub is still only 21.

I have a rule when it comes to young NBA players, I'm hesitant to completely give up or rule out a player before the end of their rookie contract, and I especially don't like doing it before Year 3. Now you can make the calculated decision to trade away a draft pick of yours entering their third year, but even in that, I wouldn’t be so certain that this player could turn their NBA career around in a different setting. That doesn't mean every struggling young player eventually becomes great. It means development isn't linear. 

With all of this in mind, I do, however, believe in readjusting your expectations for a player before their rookie contract is up. There is a difference between giving up on Bub and readjusting expectations.

I've definitely done the latter.

After Bub’s rookie campaign, I could envision a scenario where Bub developed into Washington's eventual starting point guard, particularly if the Wizards surrounded him with multiple secondary creators and versatile defenders.

I don't really see that anymore.

Instead, I'm becoming more interested in Bub as a combo off ball guard who can provide an offensive punch off the bench. Put him alongside a better primary creator or point forward type, potentially someone like Will Riley, and allow Bub to spend more time doing what he does best. Shoot. Don't ask him to organize the entire offense.

Last season almost felt like an identity crisis for Bub. Both Bub and the Wizards needed to discover that he might simply be more effective playing off the ball rather than functioning as a traditional primary point guard or primary ball handler. And that's okay. Better to realize this early on in your career than later. 

However, after acknowledging Bub’s strengths, we must dissect his weaknesses as well. Bub’s biggest issue is his lack of rim pressure. Only 5.3% of his shot attempts came from within three feet of the basket last season. More than 55% of his field goal attempts were threes. He attempted just 1.4 free throws per game. Those numbers paint a pretty obvious picture, Bub is extremely reliant on his jumper.

His playmaking also took a step backward. Bub’s turnovers increased from 1.7 per game as a rookie to 2.3 in Year 2 despite slightly fewer minutes, while his turnover percentage jumped from 15.2% to 19.5%. That's concerning for somebody being asked to handle significant point guard responsibilities.

And lastly, defensively, well, yeah. He has ranked as one of the least impactful defenders in the NBA in multiple different metrics. Bub must improve on the defensive end if he has hopes having a long NBA career. 

To end this, I don't need Bub to suddenly become a star. I don't even need him to morph his game anymore. What I want to see is an identity. Can he become a dangerous 40% three point shooter who provides instant offense off the bench consistently moving forward? Can he attack closeouts more effectively? Can he improve his finishing enough that defenders have to respect the drive? Can he cut down the turnovers when he's asked to create? Can he use his size to become at least an average defender?

Ultimately, I think the shooting will find Bub a home in this league. Shooting at that level is simply too valuable, especially from a 21 year old guard who still has plenty of development ahead of him.

There's also something about Bub that makes me very hesitant to count him out, he seems wired to want to get better. The mentality, confidence and competitiveness that made Wizards fans gravitate toward him in the first place haven't disappeared because he had a disappointing second season.

Year 3 is his opportunity to respond and I will be rooting for him to do so all along the way.