This season hasn't gone as expected for Nate Oats' squad, and we decided to dive deep into the numbers and figure out just why the Alabama Crimson Tide are struggling.
No, this is not a reactionary story in regards to Alabama losing 79-73 to Tennessee at home.
No, this is not a story calling for Nate Oats’ job as Alabama head coach.
And no, this is not a puff piece saying that “everything is going to be OK” for Alabama hoops.
Because in the end, what we saw last night from the Alabama Crimson Tide’s basketball program tells us that everything is in fact not OK.
Oats wanted to see what his team was made of to start the season. He wanted them to get tested early on from college basketball’s best instead of easing into the season by taking on lower-level programs.
And it came out with mixed results.
In the first five games of the season, Alabama took on four top-15 programs in St. John’s, Purdue, Illinois, and Gonzaga – starting the season 3-2.
And for the season, the Tide hold just a 2-4 record against ranked opponents, including getting clobbered by the number-one team in the country at the time – Arizona by 20 points.
It’s clear that Alabama is currently in that “middling” position where it’s good enough to dominate mid-major programs, but when it comes to opponents that are near, or on its level, the Tide have a difficult time pulling out the win.
In games determined by 10 points or less, the Tide hold a 5-5 record.
For the six and a half seasons that Oats has been at the helm in Tuscaloosa, he’s led Alabama to a Final Four, Elite Eight, two Sweet Sixteens, and a first round elimination in the NCAA Tournament. Along with that, he led the Tide to two SEC Championships.
We’re currently in Week 12 of the college basketball season, and the highest that Alabama has ever been ranked in this time frame was eighth a couple of times.
Currently, the Tide is ranked 19th in AP Poll.
After the Tennessee loss last night, it forced me to look deeper into the numbers as to why Alabama has missed the mark throughout the season.
It was clear as day.
It’s careless basketball. Too many 3-pointers attempted, not enough made. Not enough easy baskets. Not enough turnovers generated.
For as long as Oats has been coach, we’re familiar with his run-and-gun style of offense and wanting to take as many 3s as possible.
But not just that, he’s instilled his team to avoid taking any and all mid-range jumpshots.
While it has certainly worked in the past for Oats, it’s an incredibly high-risk, high-reward strategy. Everything has to work perfectly for his plan to come into place.
The problem is, this season’s Alabama roster isn’t meant for Oats’ style of play, and it’s showing in the numbers.
According to KenPom, the Tide attempt 3-pointers at the fifth-highest mark in the country, but only make them at a 34.6% clip – ranked 145th.
It’s even worse when playing against SEC teams. Alabama attempts on average 50 3-pointers, which ranks first among all SEC teams, but only makes them at a 31.7% clip which is 13th in the conference. For context, there are 16 teams in the conference.
In regards to point distribution, the Tide are 20th in the country when it comes to 3s. Exactly 40% of their total points per game come from 3-pointers, however when it comes to 2-pointers, they’re ranked 351st.
On the defensive end, Alabama has neglected to show any sort of urgency this season.
It does a poor job at forcing turnovers, ranking 351st with a 13.3% turnover rate, where the Division I average is 17.7, and it welcomes opposing teams to grab offensive rebounds.
Second chance points are crucial in basketball, and Alabama has a negative margin for second chance points – ranking 238th in the country.
All of this is to say that Alabama’s current style of play hasn’t been sustainable whatsoever. Oats’ determination for 3-pointers or shots at the basket has not only limited the ceiling for this team, but it’s crushing any hopes of making a deep NCAA Tournament run.
Instead of entering the NBA Draft, star guard LaBaron Philon decided to come back for his sophomore season so he can help Alabama win a National Championship.
However, if Alabama’s current play continues throughout the season, those aspirations may just turn into pipe dreams.