March is for broken brackets and when underdogs become legends.

As fourth-seed Alabama gears up for the first round of the NCAA Tournament, let’s dive into the numbers and see if they are in danger of falling victim to the infamous March Madness upset.

Their opponents are the 13th-seed Hofstra Pride, a program that hasn’t experienced the NCAA Tournament in 25 years and is coached by Hofstra alum, and NBA veteran Speedy Claxton.

Hofstra has based its tournament run on late game heroics, and a full-circle moment for Claxton.

As we’ve seen in past years, upsets are more real than ever, and even powerhouse programs can’t take the mid-majors lightly.

As coach Nate Oats said in his presser on Sunday:

“Those guys [Hofstra] are gonna be playing with house money, and they’re gonna be playing free… and they got great guard play.”

Two of those guards are Preston Edmead, the hero in the CAA Semifinals, and Cruz Davis, the CAA leading scorer.

The guard matchup will headline Friday’s duel, as LaBaron Philon and Aden Holloway go band-for-band with a dynamic guard duo.

But this isn’t new for the Philon-Holloway pairing.

*All numbers that are pulled are directly from KenPom

Oats insisted on his team playing the toughest competition this season, going against St. John’s, Purdue, Illinois, Clemson, Gonzaga and Arizona all in the first 10 games of the season. All of those teams, except Clemson, ended up ranking in the top-20 by the season’s end.

Bama held its own in that time, going 3-3, with Arizona being the only loss that was over 10 points.

Hofstra, on the other hand, didn't have a very strong schedule, ranking 223rd in the nation, and it had some very poor losses. The Pride fell to Iona, Temple and Columbia, and then went on a five-game losing streak to Stony Brook, Elon, William & Mary, North Carolina A&T, and Charleston.

The highest ranked team in that bunch was William & Mary, who was 149th.

However, Hofstra does have some convincing wins, beating Syracuse and Pitt, while also nearly pulling out a win against UCF.

The one part that may give Alabama some struggles here is that Hofstra plays a very stifling defense.

The Pride may not generate a lot of turnovers from steals, as they’re one of the worst in the country, but they’re incredible at limiting a team's efficiency from inside the 3-point line, ranking third in the country in opponent field goal percentage, 10th in opponent effective field percentage, and sixth in average 2-point distance.

That’s where it hurts primarily for Alabama.

Alabama will primarily shoot one of two ways; from beyond the 3-point line, or right under the basket.

The Tide lead the country in 3-point shots taken, taking 53% of their shots from beyond the arc, and are ranked 363rd in the nation in 2-point attempt percentage.

That discrepancy doesn’t pose well for the Tide since Hofstra will likely dare the Tide into chucking 3s. And while the Tide will welcome that with open arms, Alabama’s 3-point efficiency hasn’t been very effective.

Aside from Holloway ranking second in the SEC in 3-point percentage, and Philon being lights out from 3 in the back end of the season, a good chunk of the roster still struggle from beyond the arc.

Throughout the season, I’ve been pretty critical of Alabama's style of play.

But as the season continued to progress, I saw a significant boost. A major part of it has been its pace.

The Tide rank fourth in adjusted tempo, and third in adjusted efficiency. Meanwhile Hofstra, likes to slow down the pace, ranking 317th in tempo and 89th in efficiency. But it mainly worked for the Pride, as they’re second in efficiency in the conference.

Another part of Alabama’s success has been because of Philon’s efficiency from beyond the arc, but another part of it has been due to the depth playing a massive role.

Center Aiden Sherrell leads the SEC in blocks, averaging 2.3 blocks per game.

Meanwhile, Hofstra’s three big men Silas Sunday, Victory Onuetu, and Joshua DeCady all are used in 16% of possessions or less and average less than 7 points per game.

That means the ball will likely stay in the hands of Davis and Edmead, which could force plenty of double teams and eventually stifle Hofstra’s plans.

Statistically speaking, this should be a no brainer. 

Alabama controls the pace, with high end scorers and frequent triggers from beyond the arc – and scoring at a more efficient pace.

But as we’ve seen in previous tournaments, March is not for the weak of heart. You can be the best team in the country, but if you dare to overlook one program, be prepared to fall at the hands of a mid-major.

However, matchups featuring the 4-seed and the 13th-seed are far from automatic.

Historically, 13-seeds upset a 4-seed approximately 21% of the time, with the most recent upset occurring in 2024 when Yale defeated Auburn.

So, does that mean Hofstra’s “due?” Not necessarily.

But it’s fair to say that in the back of his mind, Oats is worried about his team’s will to compete.

Earlier this season, Oats ripped his team after losing to Texas:

"I don't think they took this [Texas] team seriously enough, based on our effort. Got to look in the mirror and see what I got to do. We tried to tell them. But just because they lost some games and they weren't very good at Tennessee -- and we handled them pretty easily at their place last year -- well, it's a new staff and a new team."

In the end, it’s about the “want to,” and not the talent. The talent gives you the upper hand, but if you don’t use it correctly, then a team like Hofstra comes by and outworks you.

Claxton even said that he and the rest of the Pride are ready for any challenge.

"We're not happy to be here. We fully expect to win... Going up against Alabama, it's not gonna be any different."

Those are strong words from the CAA Champions, but the Crimson Tide better know that they’ll have a group ready to take their crown.

Otherwise, they’ll become another statistic that they don’t want to be a part of.

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