Is the 2026 NFL Draft no longer the Fernando Mendoza Draft?

There has been a lot of chatter over the past two weeks about Alabama QB Ty Simpson gaining steam amongst teams across the NFL.

It started with ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky singing his praises for the better part of a week, and calling him the best quarterback in this draft.

A far cry from what we were hearing before.

Since then, the Simpson hype train is gaining momentum, with Mike Tannenbaum posting on X that several front offices echo Orlovsky’s sentiments.

During his appearance on The Pat McAfee Show, ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter likened Simpson’s Draft status to Baker Mayfield.

In 2018, it was considered a long shot that the Cleveland Browns were going to select Mayfield with the first overall pick, until the day of the draft when Schefter reported that Mayfield was in line to be selected.

Sound familiar?

In the first half of the college football season, it was believed that the road to the Heisman Trophy was a two-man race between Simpson and Mendoza.

But after suffering multiple injuries midseason, and playing through them, it hurt Simpson’s stock not just in the Heisman race, but in the draft.

Those injuries went unreported, leading to questions about his durability.

But after reports confirmed the suspicion that he was battling several debilitating injuries during that span, the narrative has since flipped.

Now, it seems like Simpson doesn’t make it past the first round, let alone the top-15.

Schefter says: “These things, they change and they evolve. The one thing that I can say confidently right now, in talking to front offices, is that Ty Simpson will be a first round draft pick. That’s all I’m comfortable saying right now.”

So where does Simpson end up? And what team would be the best fit for him?

The holders of the first overall pick.

For the longest time, this was Mendoza’s spot to lose. He won the Heisman Trophy, and won the National Championship with Indiana – why wouldn’t the Raiders want him?

It’s all about preference now.

After the Combine, Pro Days and interviews, anything goes and it’s all about who new head coach Klint Kubiak sees a better fit with.

Kubiak’s use of the West Coast offense could actually be a better fit for Simpson than Mendoza.

With Curt Cignetti tailoring Indiana’s offense to Mendoza’s strengths, Kubiak likes to balance out his attack. While with the Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks, Kubiak ran several sets that focused on pre-snap motion, and kick outs to the running backs.

What Simpson had struggled with at Alabama was that the Crimson Tide’s running backs struggled mightily, not just on the ground, but through the air.

Kubiak will have Ashton Jeanty to work with this time, as well as intriguing options through the air in Brock Bowers, Jalen Nailor, and Dont’e Thornton, who plays a similar style to Rashid Shaheed.  

Like the Raiders, the Jets have been in quarterback hell.

And now, with the Jets holding the second overall pick, as well as the 16th, it will be something to keep an eye on if they like him that much.

The style that Jets coach Aaron Glenn runs, focuses more on the run game, which isn’t the worst thing for Simpson.

He spent a lot of time running away from linemen last season, and the lack of a solid run game turned Alabama’s offense predictable.

Given the reports of Simpson’s stock rising, the second pick may be New York’s only chance to get him, before another quarterback-desperate team swoops him.

After releasing Kyler Murray, could the Cardinals be looking for a new franchise quarterback?

Arizona would be an enticing fit for Simpson, pairing him with wide receivers Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson – both who have established themselves as a deadly 1-2 pairing.

The problem here would be Arizona’s ability to protect its quarterback.

Even with Murray, who is one of the more agile quarterbacks in the NFL, he was still sacked 3.5 times per game. Simpson is no stranger to weak protection, as he ended up getting sacked 2.4 times per game, and it largely contributed to his injuries.

This is an interesting option, especially since the Cowboys are paying a hefty $60 million per year contract to current quarterback Dak Prescott.

But the results have not added up, and one has to wonder if Jerry Jones opts to select Simpson to have his quarterback in the future in waiting.

Barring an injury to Prescott, Simpson would not be starting, but there already is some familiarity for him, with former teammate at Alabama and Cowboys guard, Tyler Booker.

It’s a long shot because of Dallas’ current situation, but pairing him with Brian Schottenheimer’s classical style has the makings of an intriguing duo.

It’s doubtful that he gets past Los Angeles at pick 13.

Reigning NFL MVP Matthew Stafford is nearing the end of his career, and if there was ever a contingency plan for the Rams, Simpson is the perfect one.

Simpson is the perfect archetype for the Sean McVay style of offense with 11 personnel.

McVay often uses pre-snap motion to get his offense going allowing his quarterback to take advantage of ideal matchups.

Simpson, who is a cerebral quarterback, would easily thrive in this offense, especially being paired with wide receiver Puka Nacua, as well as running back Kyren Williams.

One thing’s for sure, Simpson’s draft stock has been on a roller coaster ride since the college football season has ended.

But the moment teams got the chance to see him in person, everything changed, turning this draft from a sure thing, into a crap shoot.

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