With the 2026 NFL Draft less than a month away, things are getting testy in the discourse.

Former quarterback and current ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky has gone on somewhat of a media tour pumping Alabama QB Ty Simpson’s tires and labeling him the “best quarterback in the draft.”

And that rubbed a lot of people the wrong way. Because for the majority of the offseason, this has been the Fernando Mendoza Draft.

Mendoza, who had just about as perfect of a season as you can imagine, took the Indiana Hoosiers to a land where Hoosier Nation didn’t know existed – National Champions.

He also took home the Heisman Trophy, an accolade that no Hoosier ever had the pleasure of securing.

Simpson, on the other hand, battled the first half of the season with Mendoza as Heisman favorites, but had a significant drop off midseason, largely due to several unreported injuries.

Not only did it hurt his Heisman chances, but it drastically hurt his draft position too.

Orlovsky may have been a little irresponsible in his comments about Mendoza, saying that he hadn’t played in many big games, so for the sake of this argument, we are going to completely throw that out the window.

Just why does he think that Simpson is the better quarterback?

This may or may not have come to a surprise to you readers, but the way Indiana was built, it was essentially a football utopia.

Indiana coach Curt Cignetti tailors his system to his quarterback’s strengths. There is no specific scheme that he specializes in.

Not just that, Indiana had the third-ranked defense in the country.

And for Mendoza, Cignetti implemented a high-powered and quick offense, with as much physicality as possible. But efficiency was the name of the game in Bloomington.

Per PFF, Mendoza was able to get the ball out quickly, averaging 2.67 seconds from snap-to-throw which is 0.3 seconds faster than Simpson.

Now, that three-tenths of a second may not seem like a whole lot to you, but it’s made a world of a difference to Simpson’s draft stock – and even something that has taken a toll on his body.

Not only that, Indiana had one of the most efficient trio of receivers in Omar Cooper, Charlie Becker, and Elijah Surrat.

Out of the 379 passes he attempted, Mendoza’s throws were dropped 2.2% of the time, which was second best only behind Julian Sayin, from the wide receiver-stacked Ohio State.

Conversely from Indiana, Alabama struggled with efficiency and games often ended up in a dogfight.

In what was supposed to be an offense led by an offensive wizard in both Kalen DeBoer and Ryan Grubb, there was only one word to describe the attack.

Predictable.

The run game was statistically the worst rushing season Alabama has had since 1946, only averaging 3.4 yards per carry.

To the point where Alabama spammed the pass to stay alive in games.

We’ll go back to Mendoza’s drop percentage being 2.2%, Simpson’s drop rate was 8.9%, which was among the worst of FBS quarterbacks with a minimum of 400 dropbacks.

Teams would throw blitzes against Simpson, left and right. Alabama’s offensive line struggled containing the pressures, especially on the right side.

But Simpson was one of the best quarterbacks under pressure.

His Dropback-Pressure-Rating was 164 per PFF, which indicates that he’s not just surviving plays, he’s creating positive plays while under pressure.

Though it comes with some obvious risks.

One of the biggest knocks on Simpson this past season was that he tried to extend the play too much, eventually biting him. Instead of throwing the ball away when a play is dead, he tried to use his legs to evade pressure.

And to his credit, he did that with efficiency. But once his body started taking a beating, he didn’t have that same kind of elusiveness.

In the grand scheme of things, Simpson had terrible luck during the only season he started, and yet, he still managed to finish the season with 28 passing touchdowns, five interceptions, and a 64.5% completion rate.

So when you break down his in depth stats, Simpson’s adjusted completion percentage is 75.3%, which, given his lengthy time-to-throw, and an 8.6 ADOT, there’s a lot of reason to believe that this “one man draft” is a lot closer than most will think.

Chances are, Mendoza will be selected first overall by the Las Vegas Raiders. 

He has the pedigree, the accolades, the IQ, and the mechanics under pressure to set his team up for success.

But Simpson, who’s only started in 15 games in his career, managed to turn a highly inefficient offense, into a team that actually had a chance to win games.

He brought Alabama between the hedges and won in Georgia, and conquered the ghosts at Jordan Hare Stadium against Auburn.

Then managed to go into Oklahoma for the College Football Playoffs and beat a team that had his number with a bulging disc in his back and elbow bursitis.

Is he perfect? No one is.

But no ordinary quarterback can get dealt a raw hand, and still come out ahead, especially in the SEC.

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