The dynamic shortstop has been making waves in college baseball over the past two seasons, but after a struggling season, his MLB Draft stock still remains high.
When you hear the name “Lebron,” you probably think of future basketball Hall of Famer and mogul LeBron James.
Alabama shortstop Justin Lebron is hoping baseball fans start thinking of someone else when they hear that name.
He’s one of the most intriguing names coming into this season’s MLB Draft due to his noticeable power, exceptional speed on the basepaths, and out-of-this-world fielding.
Currently, several outlets have him going in the Top-20 of the draft, with some going as early as seventh overall to the Baltimore Orioles.
Here’s the thing, though. After two dynamic seasons at the plate, Lebron has struggled in one of the more important seasons of his career.
In his first two seasons with the Crimson Tide, Lebron posted a combined .327 batting average, totaling 30 home runs and 109 RBIs, along with an impressive .425 on-base percentage and a staggering 1.016 OPS.
Compare that to this season, where he held a career-low .264 average, 15 dingers, 44 RBIs along with a .379 OBP and a .907 OPS, and you wonder what possibly could’ve gone wrong for the promising talent at the plate.
But what if it wasn’t all bad for the promising prospect?
While the production noticeably dipped, it was clear that Lebron made significant improvements which could benefit his long-term growth.
Trevor Powers of PitcherList.com did a deep analysis on what exactly was causing Lebron’s struggles, and came to a quick realization.
One of the concerns Powers had with Lebron was his tendency to chase pitches outside the strike zone, which often drove down his contact rates.
“Last season, he only made contact with 70% of the pitches he swung at, and chased at a 26% rate, which were in the 17th and 28th percentile respectively in all of college baseball in 2025,” Powers explained. “That just simply doesn’t play at the next level, no matter how talented or athletic a player is.”
Lebron always had significant power, and even with those poor underlying numbers, his power numbers were fantastic. He posted a barrel rate in the 95th percentile, an exit velocity in the 91st, and an EV90 in the 89th.
But Powers mentioned that the reason why his numbers were down this season, was he took an active approach to improve his hitting skills and discipline over the offseason.
“...sometimes the byproduct of that development is a decrease in power in the immediate future, but it typically comes back in the long run assuming no deviation from the plan,” he states.
One other concern is his performances against SEC pitching.
“Lebron is a career .309/.415/.567 hitter, but over his career he sees those numbers decrease to a .277/.365/.449 against SEC competition,” Powers says. “Of his [45] career home runs, 28 of them have come against non-conference opponents. On top of the lack of production, he also has struck out 99 times, while only walking 32 times and rocking a 69.2% contact rate with a 28.9% chase rate… Compare that to a .347/.468/.708 triple slash with 67 strikeouts and only 47 walks against non-conference opponents, and there is a concerning trend.”
Beyond that, Powers does go on to mention that even with the major regression in numbers, his approach at the plate has been significantly better than previous seasons.
Which all things considered, is a good thing, despite the troubles against SEC competition.
The question isn’t whether Lebron has the talent to be great, it’s how he can perform against those who match that talent on the mound.
Lebron's draft stock isn't built solely on what he did this season. It's built on what scouts believe he can become.
The power, athleticism and defensive ability have never been in question.
The next challenge will be proving that his improved approach can translate into production against the best pitching he'll face.
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