Arkansas would at least like to get out of a 5-12 matchup and into a 4-13 at the NCAA Tournament. The ultimate goal is still clear: a No. 3 seed
In Joe Lunardi's most recent ESPN bracketology forecast, the godfather of the profession has Arkansas basketball as a No. 5 seed in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
This shows that Arkansas has stayed relatively stable over the past few weeks. The Hogs have been holding steady at the 5 seed for awhile. They haven't lost the bad games which tank a seeding and push it down to 7, but they also haven't won the huge games which could push their seeding up to 3. That's why the Alabama loss hurt, and that's why the upcoming game at Florida is so huge for UA.
If the Razorbacks can go into Gainesville and win on Saturday, they would certainly rise one seed line to No. 4. If they can get to a No. 4 seed at the end of February -- the Florida game is on February 28 -- they can certainly then play their way into a No. 3 seed by going on a big late-season run.
After Florida, Arkansas plays Texas and Missouri, two games the Razorbacks will be expected to win. If they can beat UF, pocket those other two wins, and then go on a run at the SEC Tournament, at least making the final, they could get a No. 3 seed.
The value of a 3 seed is obvious to anyone who studies bracketology and knows the workings of the NCAA Tournament. This would give Arkansas a path which bypasses No. 1 seeds in the Sweet 16.
Arkansas wouldn't play Duke, Michigan, or Arizona in the Sweet 16. That would be guaranteed, given that those three teams are locks for No. 1 seeds. The fourth No. 1 seed is an open battle involving a few different teams, most notably Iowa State, UConn, and Houston, with Iowa State and UConn moving ahead of UH due to the Cougars' string of recent losses.
In the meantime, if Arkansas can't get a 3 seed, the 4 seed is still valuable since the crop of expected No. 12 seeds -- the teams which would play No. 5 seeds in the first round -- appears to be very strong. Dropping one seed notch lower -- to a 13 seed -- would give Arkansas as a 4 seed a much better first-round bracket path in the NCAA Tournament.
Arkansas hasn't been dropping on the seed list over the past few weeks, but now is the time for the Hogs to make an upward move in the projected NCAA Tournament bracket.