Coach Prime faces a season-defining crossroads as the Buffaloes hunt a massive upset against undefeated Texas Tech.
Deion Sanders’ Colorado Buffaloes team find themselves in an almost must-win scenario in Week 5. This game versus Texas Tech is as close to a must-win season-saving win as possible. However, it’s only almost must win because a win over Texas Tech or Utah next week could dramatically change the schedule math.
The Buffaloes are 2-2 after four games against Georgia Tech, Weber State, Northwestern and Baylor. Before the season began, 3-1 should’ve been possible. After beating Georgia Tech in Atlanta, convincingly, 4-0 was not off the table. The latter two games, vs Northwestern and Baylor, were not good and a clear regression from Week 1.
Today, we know Northwestern is a much better team than most thought before the season started. After a 34-point win over Colorado, the Wildcats stuck with the reigning National Champions to the tune of 29-23 and convincingly beat Penn State by three touchdowns. Baylor, however, might be exactly what we thought they were.
Slaying Goliath would change the season's trajectory
Make no mistake about it, if Texas Tech at Colorado was a David vs. Goliath story, Colorado is David. Without the benefit of knowing, David wins in the end. Texas Tech has been a legitimate Big 12 title and college football playoff ‘contender’ for a few years now. Even with their offseason quarterback debacle, they are still expected to be in the conversation for postseason play. Colorado has yet to reach those levels in four years under Deion Sanders.
The Red Raiders are undefeated, including a close win against No. 20 Houston. Outside the Houston and Oregon State games, Texas Tech hasn’t allowed a team to stay with them through the first quarter of the season. They enter this game with the 48th ranked offense nationally, which is actually lower than Northwestern (40th) and Baylor (42nd).
Defensively, it could provide some opportunities for the Buffaloes. Tech is 70th in overall defense, positioned between Sacramento State and Middle Tennessee State. A far cry from the rankings they were pulling last season when they still had defensive difference makers like David Bailey and Jacob Rodriguez.
Colorado cannot afford to play the Red Raiders game
Even without the full complement of the 2025 Texas Tech team, the Red Raiders are an explosive team with elite athletes. Tech ranks No. 18 in the 2026 recruiting class. No. 5 overall in the transfer portal ranking. The Raiders have four times as many 4-and-5-star players on their roster. Colorado has four verbal commitments from recruits with ranks that high, but all of them are class of 2027.
Neither the Buffaloes nor the Red Raiders rank in the top 50 for total offense or passing offense. Tech does run the ball well enough to crack the top 50 at No. 48. While running that ball has been a strength for Colorado for the first time under Coach Prime, you have to go to No. 78 before you find Colorado.
While Colorado doesn’t rank as high as fans might think, running the ball could be the only saving grace for the Buffaloes. Tech allows a shade under 95 yards per game on the ground. Conversely, Colorado is averaging 156 yards per game on the ground. Excluding their most recent loss, Colorado is averaging double what Tech allows on the ground. 183 yards vs Georgia Tech, 180 vs Weber State and 180 vs Northwestern.
Both of Colorado’s wins have something in common. They didn’t just run it, they leaned on the run. Almost as if they took the approach of we’re going to run it over and over until you prove you can stop it. That strategy forced Georgia Tech into a specific game plan. Colorado won that game on a last second Boo Carter blocked field goal attempt.
Joseph Williams has been very consistent this season and arguably their best receiving target. DeAndre Moore had to leave the Baylor game early due to injury. Moore is expected to play today vs Tech. However, Colorado should lean on the run again and see if they can force Tech to stop them. If Colorado can win the rushing battle and get back to controlling the line of scrimmage, they could find themselves in this game late. If they try to throw with the Red Raiders and don’t control the clock, this game could get out of hand quickly.
Entering this game at 2-2, the schedule math makes this game pivotal. After Texas Tech, Colorado with play No. 13 Utah, a No. 19 Oklahoma State team that already beat Oregon who was ranked No. 2 in the nation at that time, a gritty Kansas State team, Arizona State, No. 20 Houston before ending the season against Cincinnati and UCF. Cincinnati is also 4-0 in the Big 12 currently.
There are no penciled in wins on this schedule, based on how Colorado has played through four games. Each week is going to become increasingly important. If the Buffaloes could steal a win this week or next, it looks much better than if they drop both. If they lose to Texas Tech and Utah, they will be 2-4 with only six weeks left in the season. Making even bowl eligibility wildly difficult.
More Colorado Buffaloes News:
