Can new coach Jon Sumrall truly turn around Florida's struggling program? Josh Pate delivers a dose of reality for optimistic Gators fans.
Spring is the time many college football fans have high hopes for a first-year coach.
New Florida head coach Jon Sumrall has said all of the right things in the past few months. He bragged about changing the culture, taking away logos from athletic wear during workouts.
Sumrall has put his players through the gauntlet, literally.
However, there is only so much Sumrall can do in his first offseason with a Florida team that had serious foundational problems under former head coach Billy Napier.
Sumrall noted that he wanted his team to play more physically during spring practice. UF is still trying to figure out their starting five on the offensive line.
While wide receiver and running back should be the strength of the Gators, no one knows if Aaron Philo or Tramell Jones Jr. will be getting those weapons on the ball. (Not to mention, how effective either would be as the starter.)
Josh Pate received a bold take from a fan who thinks Sumrall can run through a nine-game SEC schedule and get to 10 wins in his first year. Pate had a reality check for Gators fans, suggesting that the team was headed for more moderate improvement.
"So let's say at least 10 games, because I'm not going to dock you if they win 11 games," Pate said on "Josh Pate's College Football Show" this week. "So they won more than 10. Okay, so Sumrall wins 10 and they make the college football playoff title game.
"How crazy would this be? Just to give you an idea, they're over-under win total at FanDuel 7.5 to start the year. They're plus-360 odds to just make the playoff. Plus-4,500 to win it all. So yes, this would be a significant upset in the odds market."
Pate questioned if Philo or Jones could leave Florida for the College Football Playoff in 2026.
“Not just to have a good, solid nine-win year, but to win double-digit games and make the college football playoff title game? Now the roster is not bad. Roster is not bad at all," Pate said.
"Is the line of scrimmage play there? That's the second question after the quarterback question. And can they get to the playoffs and win at least two, if not three, playoff games? I'm skeptical."
After a 4-8 season, it would be a success for this Florida team to win 7-8 games and make a bowl game. That's not where Sumrall wants the program to be, but that’s where it is in 2026.
The future should be brighter when Sumrall gets his recruits into Gainesville. But it will take time to build.
Remember, Urban Meyer didn't make the Gators elite in Year 1.