Numbers Don't Like Florida's Chance to Upset Kentucky

The 2026 season has been full of ups and downs for the Florida Gators, with the team seesawing between being elite and playing poorly.

Florida was able to get off to an excellent start this season under head coach Jon Sumrall, giving some thought to a potential run to the College Football Playoff. But a mid-season lapse sent the Gators backward, with the team needing to get back to the drawing board.

The Gators then responded by taking down the Texas Longhorns, pulling the team back toward a potential playoff berth. But over the last two weeks, reality has hit this program, seeing the offense completely sputter.

Florida currently sits with a record of 5-4 for the season, going 3-4 in SEC games so far this year. This week, the Gators will be heading out on the road to face the Kentucky Wildcats, who are ranked at No. 11 entering the game.

Kentucky has been a major surprise around the country this year, with the team rallying around head coach Will Stein in his first season. The Wildcats will be entering the game with Florida holding a record of 7-2, going 5-2 in SEC play.

Heading into the game, the Gators are being viewed as underdogs against the Wildcats on the road. According to the ESPN matchup predictor, Florida has been given just a 46.2 percent chance to upset Kentucky this week.

For the Gators to pull off the upset, the team is going to need a total team effort out on the field. Playing on the road in college football is never easy, no matter the circumstances, and the Wildcats have been good this year.

One area for the Gators to win is to get the ground game going again, giving the offense a needed spark. When Florida was winning earlier in the season, the rushing attack was leading the charge, with the passing game feeding off it.

This allowed the Gators' offense to be well-rounded, creating all sorts of problems for opposing teams to deal with. But over the last few weeks, the rushing attack has slowed, limiting what Florida has been able to do on the field.

Kentucky is far too good a team for the Gators to win if they can't establish the run, making this a priority for Florida entering the game. Florida has the means to pull off the upset, but it remains to be seen if they can put together a strong enough effort for 60 minutes to win.