The case to fire Florida head coach Billy Napier is clear. He’s below .500 overall, below .500 in rivalry games, and now sitting at 1-3 exactly one-third of the way through his fourth year in charge of the program. Making things worse, it’s his offense that’s holding the team back.

It won’t get any easier, as the remaining eight games include seven SEC matchups and a season finale against No. 7 Florida State. A turnaround isn’t impossible, but the odds are against it.

However, when it comes to the $20 million question, there is more to consider than on-field results.

Logic says that if he were going to be fired mid-season, now is the time. The beginning of the off week would give the interim head coach two full weeks to organize a new structure and implement any changes.

Current UF Athletic Director Scott Stricklin has previously quoted former UF AD Jeremy Foley in saying that what must be done eventually is better done now. In this situation, however, that may not be the case.

Who runs the offense?

Presumably, defensive coordinator Ron Roberts would take over as interim head coach if Napier were fired. He has head coaching experience, he currently has the title of Executive Head Coach, and his side of the ball is performing brilliantly.

But that’s the trouble. The offense is what needs a turnaround, and that’s Napier’s side of the ball. He is the effective offensive coordinator, and he has adamantly repeated that he will continue to call the plays.

If Napier is gone, however, there is no clear path forward for the offense and struggling quarterback DJ Lagway. Only one member of the staff, tight ends coach Russ Callaway, has any experience calling plays. That was six years ago, and it was for Samford.

Callaway, to his credit, is well respected in the industry. But if the knock on the guy currently calling plays is that he wasn’t good enough to make the step up from the Sun Belt Conference to the SEC, then the guy who last called plays while coaching in the Southern Conference (members include Wofford, UT Chattanooga, and Furman) probably isn’t the answer, either.

No matter who took over, the system is already in place. Changing the system would only set the unit back more. Improving within the system is best accomplished by the person who created it.

If the intent behind firing Napier now is to improve this season, that may be an unrealistic goal.

Recruiting

Whatever has gone wrong on the field, Napier has been impressive off of it. He’s reeled in highly-ranked recruiting classes almost every year, which was the knock against his predecessor, Dan Mullen.

Yet again, Napier has a strong class lined up for the 2026 signing day. There is doubt, at the moment, that he’ll ever get to coach them. But the longer he stays, the better chance UF has of retaining those players.

UF will almost certainly be hiring a sitting head coach or high-level coordinator if it decides to part ways with Napier. That means that even if Napier is fired today, the program still won’t be able to install a new coach until December at the earliest. Depending on the targets, it could be halfway through January before someone is in the building.

Firing Napier now opens up a recruiting field day on all UF commits and targets. Keeping him until the end of the season gives the Gators a chance of holding on to prized recruits and limiting the size of the window (as well as the damage) between Napier and the next guy.

War of attrition

Yes, firing a coach at the beginning of the off week makes a ton of sense from the perspective of installing a new organizational setup. However, the timing has the potential to make things awkward.

With exactly four games played, every single player on the team who hasn’t redshirted before is eligible for a redshirt this season. If Napier is relieved of his duties now, almost every key player could decide to follow him on the way out. They could refuse to play and maintain a full year of eligibility.

Lagway, who is clearly struggling after dealing with an unspecified injury in the offseason, could decide to take a mulligan on 2025 and try his luck somewhere else next year. After all, he was a ringleader for his recruiting class that signed with Napier, and he chose to stay under the embattled coach for year two. He might not want to play for a Florida team that doesn’t have his coach leading the way.

Is mass redshirting likely? Probably not. But it’s a factor worth considering.

What if?

A bounce back happened last year. Could it happen again? UF has the same schedule as 2024, just reversed home and away locations. The current defense is legitimately one of the best in the country - it just isn’t getting any help from the offense.

That offense is stacked with talented, highly rated players. If Lagway can get past his struggles, and if Napier can get the offense in a rhythm, then this team could actually make a run. There is still 2/3 of the season to go. With the inconsistent play of the rest of the SEC, you can squint and see a way Florida beats a lot of the teams on its remaining schedule. 

It sounds crazy based on the last few weeks of play. But it’s happened before. It happened 12 months ago. What if it happens again? Delaying the inevitable could result in avoiding the inevitable altogether.