Upset Alert: Catching SMU Early Favors Florida State

Florida State already has a game under their belt, a 34-17 win over New Mexico State.

On Monday night, the SMU Mustangs will face off against the Seminoles in their first game of the season. The Mustangs are a -3.5-point favorite on the road in the ACC opener for both programs.

Florida State has the most difficult schedule of any team in the ACC. By catching SMU this early in the season, before they have had a chance to get their passing attack really humming, works in Florida State’s favor. It may be the biggest reason why the Seminoles could pull an upset over the No. 19 Mustangs.

SMU coach Rhett Lashlee said in a post on X, “I have no idea how we aren't a 7- to 10-point underdog.” Is that a defeatist attitude, or a coach giving respect toward an opponent?

Make no mistake, the potent passing offense of SMU is formidable, and puts tremendous pressure on opposing defenses. But running the scheme in endless practices in the spring and fall camp is not the same as executing the playbook in live game action in front of a raucous crowd that will shout the war chant to deafening decibels and display the tomahawk chop the entire game.

One thing that SMU has going for them is starting quarterback Kevin Jennings is back for this third season of running Lashlee’s offensive plays. That is a huge plus, especially in this era of the transfer portal and the allure of big NIL money to go elsewhere. The last two seasons, Jennings has posted back-to-back 3,000+ yard seasons. He threw 26 touchdown passes last season, with 13 interceptions. While that is a lot of INTs, you must consider that Jennings threw the football 454 times.

To counter, Florida State has talented running backs Ousmane Kromah and Sam Singleton Jr. ready for an encore of their week zero performance. Both combined for 279 total yards and three scores. They also have 6-foot-6 possession receiver Duce Robinson, and the speedy Micahi Danzy on the perimeter. They combined for 101 yards receiving, but no touchdowns.

The Seminoles defense did get three sacks against New Mexico State, and will need that again to disrupt SMU’s passing attack. The Florida State defensive backs will have to play much better in their coverage assignments, and line up closer to the line of scrimmage. At times against New Mexico State, the Seminoles’ soft pass defense allowed big yardage gains on passing downs. As result, Florida State struggled to put an inferior opponent away earlier.

Having four quarters of live game action in the books already bodes well for Florida State. A hostile crowd, prime time kickoff, and a conference road game as their season opener puts all the pressure on Lashlee to call the right plays, and for Jennings to execute those calls.

A fired up and determined Seminoles defense will be looking for that big signature win over a ranked opponent, and to avenge their four-touchdown loss to the Mustangs in their only other meeting, back in 2024. Who will blink first? It should be a fun game to watch. Welcome back, college football.