Florida State enters Week 3 as a 17.5-point underdog against Alabama, but the Seminoles have a chance to flip the script. If FSU wants its “Why not us?” moment, three things must change.
Florida State has officially transitioned from bye to game week.
Now Mike Norvell and the Seminoles have a chance to seize the moment with a win over Alabama, redefining the season and giving them their “Why not us?” moment in college football.
We are only heading into Week 3, but there have already been some incredible storylines and " Why not us?" moments across college football.
Michigan (2-0) needed a miracle to pull victory from the hands of defeat against Western Michigan. A week later, in a game many picked the Wolverines to lose, Michigan took down No. 11 Oklahoma (1-1), 17-10 for their "Why not us?" moment.
Oklahoma State (1-1), much like Michigan, entered Week 2 against No. 6 Oregon (1-1) as the underdog. The Cowboys had there "Why not us?" moment, pulling off the upset with a 39-31 win over the Ducks.
Then, late Saturday night, No. 1 Ohio State (1-1) appeared to have the game in hand. The Buckeyes held a 23-3 lead heading into the fourth quarter, and the game looked out of reach. Buckeye fans were already celebrating.
Then Texas (2-0) had its “Why not us?” moment. The Longhorns scored 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter, completing the comeback to beat the Buckeyes, 24-23.
The Seminoles now need to put the memories aside of two disappointing performances and embrace the “Why not us?” mentality in Week 3.
As 17.5-point underdogs, if the Seminoles are going to pull off the upset, three things have to be better to pull off the upset: quarterback play, getting off the field on defense and making No. 10 Alabama quarterback Keelon Russell uncomfortable.
Daniels Must Step Up
If Florida State is going to go on the road and beat the Tide, the starting quarterback play has to be better than what we've seen. Ashton Daniels has the Noles' passing game ranked 16th in the ACC with 163.6 passing yards per game and 327 total passing yards.
“Daniels execute the offense at speed in practice, but it hasn't translated when there are other factors out there in a live game,” Norvell said.
Daniels has been underwhelming this season, completing 58 percent of his passes (29-of-50) with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. And he has struggled to get his two biggest weapons involved in the first two games.
Duce Robinson, who chose to return to Florida State instead of entering the NFL Draft, has just five receptions for 75 yards and zero touchdowns through the first two games. Micahi Danzy has six receptions for 69 yards, also with no touchdowns.
After two games, Florida State’s leading receiver is running back Samuel Singleton Jr., who has 94 receiving yards and the only two receiving touchdowns Daniels has thrown all season.
Florida State’s running game has been the strength , and Alabama’s defense will be focused on stopping the run and forcing Daniels to beat them with his arm. If the Noles are going to pull off the upset, and Norvell is going to get the signature win he needs, Daniels has to take the next step, take control of the offense, and become the playmaker Norvell thinks he is.
“The sky’s the limit for him,” Norvell Said.
Win Third Down
What has ailed the Florida State defense all season has been its inability to get off the field on third down while also allowing big plays on those downs. Through the first two games, the defense has allowed a 58.1 percent conversion percentage on third down. Making matters even worse, seven of the 14 passing plays of 15 or more yards that Florida State has allowed have come on third down, including three touchdowns.
New Mexico went 10-for-17 on third down in the opener, with four passing plays of 15 or more yards and two touchdowns coming on those downs. SMU followed by converting 8-of-14 third downs, including three passing plays of 15 or more yards and one touchdown. Against SMU, those plays proved to be the difference.
“And there’s nine plays that you want back,” Tony White said. “Nine plays, 10 points and probably 250 yards.”
The Noles cannot afford to give the Alabama offense extra opportunities, especially on third-and-long, if they are going to find a way to win this game.
Pressure Changes Everything
For the defense to get off the field, it will have to keep Keelon Russell in the pocket while making him uncomfortable. That means generating consistent pressure in the backfield, forcing Russell to rush his throws or bringing him down before he can extend plays.
So far, Florida State hasn't done that consistently. Against New Mexico State, the Noles recorded three sacks but only one quarterback hurry. Against SMU, they failed to record a sack but did generate four quarterback hurries.
Against Alabama, that pressure will have to be more consistent. If Florida State can't keep Russell uncomfortable and inside the pocket, it could be a long afternoon for the Noles in Tuscaloosa.
Better quarterback play. Win third down. Pressure Russell. Do that, and Florida State might just have its “Why not us?” moment in Tuscaloosa.
