Could the Seminoles Make a Costly Mistake by Firing Norvell?

Florida State Seminoles fans may not want to read this, but firing Mike Norvell before the the school has a new athletic director in place could be an expensive mistake the university can ill-afford to make.

After yet another disappointing loss to Louisville, the pressure to win is at an all-time high. With another season trending toward disappointment, fans are fed up and have every reason to demand change.

While it is easy for fans to spend the athletic department's money, the decision is far from simple for Florida State.

“It is a bottom-line business. And I think right now Florida State's administration is trying to figure out how do we make that next step?” former FSU quarterback and current college football analyst Danny Kanell said.

Football is the biggest revenue generator for most athletic departments. This makes the hiring of a head coach one of the most important decisions an athletic director can make.

If Florida State decides to move on from Norvell before hiring a permanent AD, the university risks putting itself at a disadvantage in its search for a top coaching candidate.

Why the disadvantage?

Without a permanent athletic director in place, Florida State could limit its coaching options and make it harder to land a top candidate.

Hiring a coach beforehand could make potential athletic director candidates hesitant to take the job. They would be forced to inherit a coach they had no part in selecting, leaving them responsible for a decision they didn't make that could ultimately define their tenure.

That begs the question: Why would a new athletic director want to be tied to a coach if they believe a better candidate is available, especially with a football program under enormous pressure to win?

The financial situation only makes matters harder.

If the Seminoles decide to move on now and pursue a more established, high-profile coach, they may need to offer a lucrative, multi-year contract to convince him to come to Tallahassee. Depending on the terms, that deal could create another massive buyout if the hire fails to meet expectations.

With roughly $68 million in potential buyout costs for Norvell and his staff and approximately $437 million in debt, Florida State could limit a new athletic director's ability to make another coaching change if the hire fails. 

“To put it bluntly, FSU has significant financial issues. The athletic department is more than $430 million in debt,” Pete Thamel wrote. “That makes it difficult for FSU to take on more debt. It's especially difficult for an athletic department that faces paying out up to $68 million for both Norvell and his staff.”

Florida State cannot afford to get another coaching hire wrong.

Firing Norvell, despite the debt, is not impossible. However, it makes getting the next hire correct even more critical. The last thing Florida State needs is to pay another failed coach while trying to find the money to move on again in an era when college football continues to grow more expensive.

That raises another important question.

With the potential financial repercussions of getting the hire wrong, is an interim athletic director the right person to entrust with a critical decision?

For a decision that could affect the program for years, wouldn't it make more sense to let the new AD decide which coach he wants to be tied to rather than have someone who might not even be around for the first snap of next season make that choice?

Norvell's tenure can be described as a roller coaster, with highs and lows, but unfortunately for Norvell, the lows outnumber the highs.

“I think I speak for a lot of Florida State fans when you're just exasperated and frustrated and embarrassed by some of the performances,” Kanell said. “ But the thing that's so frustrating, is that it does go up and down, up and down. There's no consistency there.”

And Florida State deserves more than just the occasional success Norvell has delivered. The Seminoles deserve a coach who can deliver consistency, develop players and identify difference-makers who justify the resources invested. These are all things Norvell failed to do.

Florida State will have to make a decision about Norvell, and unlike the people screaming to move on, those in charge have to make it with a clear understanding of the university's finances and the financial repercussions moving forward.

That’s a decision that should be made with a permanent athletic director in place who has a clear vision for the future.

Firing Norvell may be the right decision, but doing so without the right leadership in place could prove to be an even more costly mistake. Florida State may be better off waiting for a permanent AD who can evaluate Norvell's future and make the coaching decision he believes is best for the program.

Finally, a big-named coach might hesitate in taking the job without a permanent athletic director in place for purposes of continuity.