Florida State is coming off back-to-back losing season and  fail to be bowl eligible in both season . Those failures have put increased pressure on the Seminoles, namely Head Coach Mike Norvell, entering 2026, to either win or Florida State will look to someone new who win.  

Norvell took over Florida State in 2020 and was tasked with rebuilding the program back into a national contender. And it looked like he was getting close to accomplishing it after the Seminoles finished the 2023 regular season undefeated and only missed out on a College Football Playoff berth after losing their starting quarterback. But since then, the program has struggled to find any consistency in winning games.

After the 2023 season, Norvell appeared to have reestablished  Florida State among college football’s elite programs. Instead, Florida State holds a 7-17 record with just three conference victories. The success of the 10-3 2022 season, along with the 13-1 2023 season, looks more like the outliers than the norm in Norvell's tenure.

The disappointments of the last two seasons have flipped the script on Norvell’s future and raised questions about whether he can lead Florida State back to consistent ACC contention. That decline has Norvell facing mounting pressure to deliver results.

The mounting pressure has turned the 2026 season into a crossroads for the Florida State program and, more importantly, for Norvell and his staff. Entering the 2026 season, there are questions surrounding his future, as his him sitting on one of the hottest head coaching seats in college football. According to Josh Pate, "When you’re talking about must-win, like got to get it done in 2026, Mike Norvell and Florida State have to be at the top of the list.” And ESPN’s Adam Rittenberg, for a second consecutive season, has Norvell at the top of his way-too-early coaching hot-seat tiers for 2026.

Now just past the halfway point of the offseason, the question is whether Norvell can right the ship and steer Florida State back in the right direction moving forward.

Unfortunately for Norvell, the 2026 schedule doesn’t give the Seminoles any time to find their footing. That’s something they could use with only six returning starters back, ranking them tied for No. 81 nationally and No. 14 in the ACC in returning production, according to Cody Nagel of CBS.  Add in the new names on the coaching staff, and it’s easy to see why they have the 11th-best odds to win the ACC at +4000 on FanDuel.

Florida State's early games make up its most challenging stretch, and it comes before the calendar flips to November. In that stretch, the Semionals have only two clearly winnable matchups . The remaining games in that span could go either way, making the early portion of the schedule the defining test for the Seminoles.

When it comes to the Seminoles early schedule, Josh Pate stated, “ If it’s going to go downhill for Mike Norvell, it’s going to go downhill early. And remember, last year was the year when we had all the firings in October. If that’s going to happen anywhere, it could happen at Florida State this year.”

Florida State opens the season Aug 29 at home to New Mexico State, Sep 7 SMU at home, Sep 19 at Alabama, Sep 26 at home to Central Arkansas, Oct 3 at home to Virginia, Oct 9 at Louisville, Oct 17 at Miami and finally a Halloween party to end the stretch Oct 31 at home to Clemson.

If Norvell survives the 2026 season, finding the right quarterback out of the transfer portal may ultimately determine it. As Shehan Jeyarajah of CBS wrote, “Quarterback transfers have never been more important.” Jeyarajah’s point is highlighted by last season's College Football Playoff, where seven of the starting quarterbacks were transfers, including all four who led their teams to the final four. And in New York for the Heisman Trophy presentation, where  three of the  finalists were transfers.

This offseason, Anthony Colandrea, DJ Lagway, and Ashton Daniels all visited Florida State, but it was Daniels who committed to Norvell and the Seminoles. As a starter, Daniels holds a 5-18 record with 24 touchdowns and 22 interceptions. But like Brad Crawford of CBS stated, “Evaluating quarterbacks from the transfer portal is not an exact science, aside from the obvious difference-makers who are paid like franchise players.”

The early test will give newly announced starting quarterback Daniels the chance to prove Norvell got it right this time in Tallahassee with the 6-foot-2, 233-pound QB transfer from Auburn. Norvell, the last two seasons, also went to the portal with Tommy Castellanos last season and DJ Uiagalelei in 2024. Neither couldn’t find offensive inconsistency, now it’s Daniel's turn to prove the third time is the charm.

Heading into a crossroads season, handing the starting job to a quarterback with only five wins in three years as a starter may not inspire the confidence many were hoping for.

But Brendan Sonnone’s scouting services from 247sports, Daniels does bring some upside to the quarterback position in 2026. According to Sonnone, “Daniels is highly mobile, specifically with long strides, allowing him to gobble up space. Relatively quick as well, and flexible, Daniels is an effective scrambler and designed runner.” Sonnone also says Daniels is  “Capable of making big throws downfield while on the run. Does well, trying to keep plays alive and running to throw.”

While Daniels does have upside, a nearly one-to-one touchdown-to-interception ratio is not something anyone wants to see. a possible explanation for the rato could be what Sonnone also stated in the scouting report that Daniel “Struggles with touch, and layering the ball. This makes for high-risk throws against zone coverage where underneath defenders have a better chance at the ball.” and “Is quick to bail from the pocket and then try to re-establish play.” The Question now is, can Norvell fix it and fast enough?

Daniel's success will play a major role in how Norvell's tenure at FSU plays out. Daniel will have both Duce Robinson and Micahi Danzey back, along with Texas running back transfer Quintrevion Wisner. But despite the weapons, he will be playing behind an entirely new starting offensive line. Considering the Semionals failed to return one starter from the previous year. The quarterback position will most likely remain a major storyline heading into fall camp.

As the pressure continues to mount and failures can no longer be forgiven, Florida State’s season may come down to whether it can show fast enough progress in winning to quiet the noise in Tallahassee. To do that, Daniels needs to show he can steady the offense behind a completely rebuilt offensive line. For Norvell in 2026, with several questions that need to be answered, early results will likely define what the season will be and  Norvell’s tenure.

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