The 2026 draft is in the rearview mirror, but it gave us a clear view of why top programs like Ohio State, Georgia, and Oregon make the playoffs and contend for national championships year after year. Their ability to sustain success is driven by the consistent production of NFL talent, establishing their programs as a reliable pipeline to the next level.

At the same time, the draft has also cast a spotlight on Florida State’s decline over the past few seasons.

Top programs have built their rosters through traditional high school recruiting while also embracing the new era of the transfer portal. In today’s college football landscape, the programs that excel in evaluation, recruiting, development, and have the necessary resources are the ones succeeding at the highest level. Without excelling in all four areas, it becomes highly difficult to win at the highest level with any degree of consistency.

Evaluation is about identifying the right players, out of high school and in the portal, who will fit both the culture and system. Recruiting brings those players onto campus, has them buy into what you're doing, and secures their commitment. Development takes both players and transforms them into NFL talent. However, without the necessary financial resources, a program cannot consistently execute all three at a high level.

When it comes to Florida State's shortcomings under head coach Mike Norvell, it's player development.

According to a 2025 Athlon Sports report, unnamed ACC coaches said the following about Florida State ahead of last season:

“There’s a significant disconnect in the talent at this program," one anonymous source said. "On paper, in the rankings, they’re doing great. But a lot of their rivals feel like they’re not recruiting at a truly elite level, and the guys they get aren’t developing."

Another coach said, “It fell apart faster than I’ve ever seen. They were really early adopters of the portal, and that ‘23 team was an absolute nightmare to scheme against. You had the combination of in-house, development guys from Florida high schools and transfers. They started missing in both categories after that.”

Programs can assemble strong recruiting and transfer portal classes on paper, but without the necessary  development, even the most highly rated prospects won’t reach their potential. When players don’t reach their potential, it leads to fewer impact performances and missed opportunities in big moments. Missing those on-field moments results in potentially strong players going undrafted.

Until Florida State can consistently develop its players into NFL talent, the gap between them and the elite programs will continue to grow.

Florida State football has produced NFL talent under Norvell, but it’s the overall draft production that tells a less encouraging story. Since Norvell took over, Florida State has had three or more players selected in the NFL draft just twice: four were selected in 2021, then 10 in 2024. Those numbers are low for a program with Florida State’s recruiting history. Since 2021, the Seminoles have averaged a recruiting-class ranking around 22nd nationally, along with an 11th-ranked average transfer portal class.

Florida State’s inability to develop its talent is even more apparent when looking at teams like Clemson, which has produced more than 35 draft picks over the same span without relying on the transfer portal. Iowa has 26 selections in the same time frame because of maintaining a higher level of developing draft talent despite not recruiting at the same level as Florida State.

The 2024 draft class gave the illusion that Florida State was beginning to build a consistent pipeline of talent to the NFL and a foundation for repeated success. However, that class is looking like the outlier, not Florida State's return to relevance.

At elite programs, the expectation is to produce consistent NFL-ready talent. Speaking on Cam Heyward’s “Not Just Football” podcast, Ryan Day described the standard at Ohio State: "Across the board at Ohio State, there's an expectation when you come here, you're coming to be a first- or second-rounder, regardless of your position."

Ohio State is one of the more consistent programs that produces NFL draft selections in recent years. It's that expectation and emphasis they put on player development that leads to their on-field success.

Florida State, meanwhile, is trying to reestablish that level of consistency. The question is, can FSU accomplish that with Norvell?

The draft totals since Norvell took over tell the story about player development in Tallahassee. Programs like Georgia, Ohio State, Texas and others continue to separate themselves by consistently developing their recruiting and transfer portal classes into NFL talent. Florida State, despite strong recruiting, has not matched that level of on-field success due to a lack of player development.

As the Seminoles move forward, reestablishing a focus on player development -- rather than relying on bulk additions year after year from the transfer portal -- will play a major role in Florida State producing consistent NFL talent again. It will also set the Seminoles up to contend with the top programs in the country, both on and off the field.

With FanDuel listing Florida State at +1800 to make the playoff in 2026, one wonders who will be the coach that positions the program to get there if 2026 is another disappointing season.

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