Despite recent struggles and a questionable QB, the Seminoles land surprisingly high in a way-too-early ranking. Are they overrated?
There was a time in college football when Florida State was the best on the field every Saturday. With three national titles and too many top-10 finishes to count, legendary coach Bobby Bowden had built a juggernaut that dominated college football for decades.
But recently, Florida State has logged four losing seasons during coach Mike Norvell’s six years in Tallahassee. The one outlier is an undefeated regular season in 2023 (13-1 overall) and then being left out of the College Football Playoff. The Seminoles had to settle for the Orange Bowl, where they suffered a humiliating 63-3 defeat at the hands of the Georgia Bulldogs.
Fast-forward to 2026, spring practice is in the books, and Norvell has already named his starting quarterback for the fall -- former Auburn QB Ashton Daniels.
But instead of getting the keys to a Ferrari, Daniels got the keys to a Honda Civic with bald tires.
USA Today writer Paul Myerberg put out his rankings of the top 138 college football teams in 2026, updated to account for spring practices. Where the Seminoles landed in those rankings is a bit shocking.
According to Myerberg, Florida State is good enough to be ranked No. 29 in his way-too-early poll. Here are some reasons why that is way-too-high a ranking for the Seminoles.
Daniels as QB1
A transfer from Stanford and then Auburn, Daniels pulled the trigger on an Auburn passing attack that ranked No. 99 in the country, as they averaged 197 yards a game through the air. That was bad enough for the Tigers to rank 15th in the 16-team SEC. In his career, Daniels has thrown almost as many interceptions (22) as he has touchdown passes (24). He only played in four games at Auburn last season. Yet Norvell anointed Daniels the Noles' starter after just 15 spring practices.
Norvell as Play-Caller
With the retirement of Gus Malzahn, Norvell will handle play-calling duties. Malzahn was well-known for his offensive play design and dynamic schemes. Who knows what schemes Norvell will dial up, and whether they will take advantage of the offensive talent of receivers Duce Robinson and Micahi Danzy, and running backs Quintrevion Wisner and Ousmane Kromah. Norvell is no Malzahn.
Seven Wins in Two Seasons
After the 2023 season, the Seminoles fell off a cliff, going 2-10 in 2024 and 5-7 last season. Poor recruiting and even worse player development have shackled the program and allowed mediocrity to creep in and become the norm. In a story by Athlon Sports ahead of the 2025 season, ACC coaches spoke anonymously about their conference opponents. This was their sentiment on Florida State:
“There’s a significant disconnect in the talent at this program. On paper, in the rankings, they’re doing great. But a lot of their rivals feel like they’re not recruiting at a truly elite level, and the guys they get aren’t developing.”
“It fell apart faster than I’ve ever seen. They were really early adopters to the portal, and that ‘23 team was an absolute nightmare to scheme against. You had the combination of in-house, development guys from Florida high schools and transfers. They started missing in both categories after that.”
“Gus [Malzahn] is going to take it back to basics and do a lot of run-game at first. His hire was way more about culture and having the veteran in the room than it was about a particular kind of scheme.”
The 2026 season is a do-or-die campaign for Norvell. If he does his job and has the Seminoles ready to play, and they show massive improvement on a roster built with upwards of $10 million in NIL money, Norvell might keep his job.
If the Seminoles are DOA in 2026, then Norvell could be given a pretty expensive pink slip, worth approximately $46 million in buyout money, and Florida State will move on. The Seminoles will be talented in 2026, but how Norvell develops and utilizes that talent is the $46 million question.
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