Can the Seminoles Men’s Basketball Take the Next Step?

A year after a last-second shot against Duke bounced off the rim and ended Florida State’s NCAA Tournament hopes, the Seminoles enter a new season facing a clear question: Can they take the next step and return to March Madness?

The Seminoles’ last trip to the Big Dance came in 2021, when they entered as the No. 4 seed and reached the Sweet 16 before falling 76–58 to Michigan the No. 1 seed.

Early in Luke Loucks first season, another tournament run appeared unlikely. Florida State sat 8–12 after an 83–80 loss to SMU on Jan. 24 but responded by winning 10 of its next 12 games with a win over Cal in the second round of the ACC Tournament.

That turnaround put the Seminoles one win away from forcing the selection committee to make a difficult decision. They went toe-to-toe with Duke, the No. 1 seed, but a last second shot bounced off the rim in an 80–79 loss.

That miss became the defining what-if moment of Loucks’s first season, which included six losses by three points or fewer.

Now, with November approaching and Loucks entering Year 2, he has a chance to turn late-season disappointments into the program’s first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2021.

Loucks will try to do it with a completely rebuilt roster.

Heading into Year 2, Loucks returns only three players from last season’s roster: Jasen Lopez, AJ Swinton and Jalen Crawford. Lopez did not play, while Swinton and Crawford combined for 417 minutes and 124 points. Alex Steen could become the fourth returning player if he wins his appeal for a fifth year of eligibility.

Seven players entered the portal, highlighted by second-leading scorer Chauncey Wiggins, who committed to Gonzaga. Florida State lost only one player to the NBA Draft after its third-leading scorer, Lajae Jones, was drafted in the second round, 54th overall, by the Golden State Warriors.

“I loved our boys last year; they did a great job getting better, improving, developing,” Loucks said. 

Loucks will rely on seven incoming freshmen and five transfers to get the job done in 2026–27.

Florida State brought in the 23rd-ranked recruiting class nationally and the fourth-ranked class in the ACC in the 2026 cycle, according to 247Sports rankings. Center Martay Barnes was the highest-ranked player at 43rd nationally.

Loucks’s transfer portal class ranked 45th nationally, led by Colorado power forward Sebastian Ranncik, the No. 116 overall player and No. 26 power forward in the portal. Florida State also added four other transfers.

“We have positional size at every position. We have strength, we have athleticism, we have a lot of skill,” Loucks said. “Our roster took a big step in the right direction.”

The road to March isn’t easy, and if the Seminoles are going to take the next step, they’ll have to do it against a schedule loaded with top teams.

Their non-conference schedule features matchups against Florida (Nov. 10), Tennessee (Dec. 1) and Houston (Dec. 20). All three rank among the 10 best odds to win the national championship, with Florida favored at +550 and Tennessee and Houston tied for eighth at +3000, according to DraftKings.

An automatic bid from winning the ACC Tournament may be Florida State’s clearest path to March Madness, but getting there won’t be easy. The Seminoles have the 11th-best odds to win the ACC regular-season title at +15,000, according to DraftKings.

Florida State hosts Duke on Feb. 16 and Louisville on Feb. 23. The Blue Devils are favored to win the ACC (-128); the Cardinals have the conference’s second-best odds (+400).

The Seminoles also face in-state rival Miami twice, on Feb. 6 and March 6. Florida State will also meet Virginia on Feb. 27. The Hurricanes and Cavaliers are 3rd and 4th in odds to win the ACC, respectively, at +660 and +680.

Florida State could face as many as eight games against teams ranked among the top 12 national championship favorites, making the Seminoles' path to March a gantlet.

For Florida State to overcome the odds.

Loucks’s team has to improve on the 44 percent field-goal percentage it shot a year ago, which ranked 250th nationally. Duke shot 49.1 percent, ranking 18th nationally, while Gonzaga shot 50.5 percent, ranking eighth. For a rebuilt Florida State roster, being more efficient in scoring will be one of the biggest challenges of the season.

Last season showed Loucks can get Florida State within one possession of a possible March Madness birth. Year 2 will determine whether a completely rebuilt roster can take the final step against an non-conference and ACC schedule loaded with contenders.