BetMGM released its win total lines for the 2026 college football season, and Illinois is projected to finish tied for seventh in the Big Ten. Indiana, Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, and USC all have win totals of 8.5 or higher, while Washington, Iowa, and Illinois are set at 7.5.

Illinois' win total sits at 7.5 despite coming off one of the best seasons in program history. The Illini finished 9-4 overall, going 8-4 in the regular season before capping off the year with a Music City Bowl victory over Tennessee in Nashville.

A seven or eight-win season would represent Illinois' lowest win total since 2023, when the Illini finished 5-7 overall and 3-6 in Big Ten play. That season was viewed as a disappointment, and the BetMGM line suggests Illinois could take a slight step back compared to the past two years.

The Illini are expected to face some regression with the departures of quarterback Luke Altmyer and edge rusher Gabe Jacas. Altmyer went undrafted in the 2026 NFL Draft but signed a three-year deal with the Detroit Lions. Jacas was selected No. 55 overall by the New England Patriots and will undoubtedly be a major loss for the defense.

Going 8-4 in the regular season would still be a successful year for Illinois considering the talent it lost following back-to-back nine-win seasons. Taking a closer look at the schedule, eight wins is a realistic target.

UAB

Duke

Southern Illinois

@ Ohio State

Purdue

@ Michigan State

Oregon

@ Maryland

Nebraska

@ UCLA

Iowa

@ Northwestern

According to DraftKings, Illinois has already opened as a favorite against both UAB and Northwestern. The Illini are 27.5-point favorites over UAB and 3.5-point favorites against Northwestern. Those should be two wins to begin and end the 2026 regular season.

Illinois has a great opportunity to start the year 3-0 before likely facing its toughest challenge of the season at Ohio State. The Buckeyes and Oregon appear to be the two most difficult games on the schedule and will likely result in losses, similar to the Indiana and Ohio State games last season.

Every home game outside of Oregon is winnable, and road trips to Michigan State, Maryland, and UCLA all present opportunities for victories.

If Illinois can win five of its seven home games, with losses to Oregon and one other opponent, while taking care of business at Northwestern and finding two additional road wins, the Illini would reach the eight-win mark.

Avoiding bad losses will be critical. Illinois traveled to Wisconsin last season as a 9.5-point favorite and came away with a loss. The Illini finished with four losses but arguably should have had only three, making it fair to assume they could drop at least one game in which they are favored.

The schedule sets up favorably, and there is no reason Illinois should not aim for eight wins once again. The team may not be quite as strong as it was over the past two seasons, but that does not mean the Illini cannot reach the eight-win mark for a third consecutive year.