Former Illini Keaton Wagler's Mixed Summer League Poses Questions

Going into the 2026 NBA Draft, analysts had doubts about Keaton Wagler's size and ability to create separation. The start of the Las Vegas Summer League did nothing to quell those fears.

Wagler's debut was about as bad as a top pick could have. Against the Sacramento Kings, the former Illini All-American made just one of his seven shot attempts for a grand total of seven points. He was 1-of-5 on three-pointers and also picked up five personal fouls.

The Clippers guard's follow-up performance began similarly rough. At halftime, Wagler once again shot just 1-of-7 from the floor, but his game began to turn around in the third quarter. Wagler erupted for 18 of his 23 points, going 5-of-7 and making three triples in a win over the Jazz.

That confidence spurred a much better back half of Summer League for Wagler. The 19-year-old posted 16 points, six rebounds and four assists in a loss to the Lakers, then wrapped up his time in Vegas with 26 points and four rebounds in a win over the Timberwolves.

Even with his improved stats, questions remain for Wagler between now and his anticipated regular season debut in October. ESPN's Zach Kram ranked Wagler — the No. 5 overall pick — as the 10th-best player in his post-Summer League rookie rankings.

"With his size (6-foot-5, 188 pounds), smooth 3-point stroke (35% at Summer League) and shrewd passing out of the pick-and-roll, Wagler profiles as a lead creator at the NBA level," Kram wrote. "But he was overly passive for long stretches in Vegas, and a lack of explosiveness meant he rarely created any separation from defenders. Even his 18-point quarter came mostly from shots beyond the arc; Wagler made just 33% (7-for-21) of his 2-point attempts at summer league, which suggests a rookie year more like Egor Demin's in Brooklyn than that of a Rookie of the Year contender."

Players drafted behind Wagler that were ranked ahead of the former Illinois star include the Bucks' Brayden Burries (No. 10 pick), the Nets' Mikel Brown Jr. (No. 6), the Warriors' Yaxel Lendeborg (No. 11), the Mavericks' Morez Johnson Jr. (No. 9) and the Hawks' Kingston Flemings (No. 8).

Indeed, although the scoring output for Wagler was much improved over his final three Summer League games, the skinny guard still struggled with efficiency. He shot 38.6% overall and 33.3% from deep across the entire event. If the Kings game is excluded as an outlier, Wagler still only made 42.0% of his attempts and 36.8% of his triples.

In all, Wagler averaged 18.0 points, 3.3 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 4.3 fouls per game.

The sharks may have been circling the water after Wagler struggled mightily through six quarters, but the 2025-26 Big Ten Freshman of the Year showed exactly what he's capable of. However, nothing matters except the product that Wagler puts on the floor in real NBA games.