BLOOMINGTON, Ind. — There is skepticism about the IU football team, and for good reason. As was the case last year, and will continue to be the case until 2030, IU hasn't played anybody challenging in the non-conference schedule, stumbling to a victory over Old Dominion, rolling Kennesaw State and pulverizing Indiana State, 73-0.
The Hoosiers are ranked 17th, but 12 voters left the Hoosiers completely off their ballots. The questions outside the program persist: Are they one-hit wonders? They were a happy revelation last year, finishing 11-2, losing only to the two national finalists, Notre Dame and Ohio State, reaching the College Football Player. Can they sustain this rarefied level of play for a second consecutive year?
With No. 9 Illinois coming to Bloomington Saturday for a sold-out, prime-time game under the lights, IU not only has a chance to establish its bona fides (again), it will have the inside track on the fourth Big Ten CFP berth -- assuming, as we do, that Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State will be the top three teams in the conference.
Why is this game so important, even coming this early in the season? Because for IU, the only true resume-building games remaining are at Oregon and Penn State, and those are two tough asks on the road. If IU loses Saturday, they'll have a difficult time making up ground and reaching the CFP.
"Look, last year, before the season started, we were playing favorite in three games," Cignetti said. "We were picked 17th out of 18 teams. So every Big Ten game we went into, we were an underdog before the season started, maybe with the exception of Purdue. So last year's in the books. It's a new year. This is a good football team. We're a good football team."
A year ago, IU was a massive shock to the system, the losingest program in Division I history suddenly growing some muscles. Can that continue? Clearly, Cignetti has this program moving in the right direction, but we'll learn about IU's status as a 2025 CFP contender Saturday night in Bloomington.
Big game? Yeah, big game. IU hasn't beaten a Top-10 team at home in 58 years. FIFTY-EIGHT! This is the first time IU and Illinois will meet as ranked teams since 1950.
In some ways, this is like the Nebraska game last season. The Hoosiers started out by beating the tar out of three non-conference cupcakes, then rolled Maryland and Northwestern. That set up a home game with Nebraska who, while unranked, figured to be IU's first significant opponent, the one that would finally challenge them.
IU 56, Nebraska 7.
It changed everything, most notably the perception of Indiana football. They were not the lovable losers any longer.
"This football team offensively, defensively and special teams are as well coached as anybody we'll see," Bielema said of IU. "They definitely have complementary football written all over them, just the way they play, the way they talk, the way they communicate. A very, very impressive group to watch overall. …There's very few plays that you can tell there's a mental breakdown. We always say more games are lost than won in our program (with) penalties, mental errors and turnovers. They just don't do those things."
This is also a chance for IU quarterback Fernando Mendoza to introduce himself to a national audience, to establish himself as somebody who could be an NFL first-round draft pick. In several early mocks, he's a first rounder and one outlet has him as the first quarterback taken. He stumbled here and there against Old Dominion, especially in the red zone, but looked good against Kennesaw State and went 19-for-20 in a half against Indiana State.
A year ago, they were a come-from-nowhere, feel-good story. But Cignetti doesn't build programs for short-term success. If you don't believe that, Google him.
Bob Kravitz is an award-winning columnist who has been in the sports journalism business for 43 years. He's worked at Sports Illustrated, the Indianapolis Star, The Athletic and other publications, and is now an Indiana-based publisher at Roundtable Sports. You can follow him on X @bkravitz.