Northwestern has been good this year, but Indiana has been on another level. The Hoosiers are favored by quite a bit, but guessing how the game will play out is still difficult.
Coming off a second shutout win in a row with a 38-0 victory over Western Kentucky, Indiana returns to Memorial Stadium for a Week 4 matchup on a Friday night to kick off conference play against Northwestern. The Hoosiers are looking to build on early-season momentum where just about everything has been working to perfection.
If you ask head coach Curt Cignetti, things are far from perfect, but the Hoosiers are 3-0, No. 5 in the country and have been steamrolling teams. Led by efficient quarterback Josh Hoover, Indiana's versatile offensive attack has been virtually unstoppable. On defense, they're obviously in a flow state right now having pitched two shutouts in a row.
Indiana is expected to beat Northwestern pretty handily, so here are a few things that would need to happen for that to transpire.
1. Indiana will score 40+ points
The Hoosiers have scored 52, 55 and 38 points during Weeks 1 through 3, and while this week's matchup is against a conference opponent, Northwestern isn't great on defense. Curt Cignetti has no remorse for opponents and is not one to let his foot off the gas even while up big. He might try to get some reserves into the game, but he doesn't go into "run three plays and punt" mode.
Indiana got off to a bit of a slow start against Western Kentucky, which is why they topped out at 38 points. Cignetti and Co. focused on that slow start during practice this week so look for IU to light it up early against Northwester allowing them to get to at least 40 points by the time the clock hits zeroes.
2. Turbo Richard and Lee Beebe Jr. will both score touchdowns
Northwestern has only played two games, so because of that have only given up four rushing touchdowns. However, they do give up 163.5 yards per game and nearly five yards per carry. Indiana wants to have a balanced attack, so expect Richard and Beebe to both be heavily involved. With them having 41 and 47 carries to this point respectively, they should each have a chance to find the end zone.
3. Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh will both score touchdowns
This one isn't necessarily dependent on the previous prediction, but they could definitely be connected. If Richard and Beebe can soften up the defense by pounding it on the ground, watch out for Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh over the top on some play action passes. These two receivers are explosive enough to get behind a condensed defense without a play fake, so look for both to make some big plays in this one.
Becker has found the end zone at least once in each game and six times total already this year. It's almost a guarantee that he'll score again. Marsh, on the other hand, has only scored twice but he's just as dynamic and reliable as Becker. Whoever Hoover wants to toss it to, can score.
4. Josh Hoover will throw his first interception
Indiana's QB1 has been lights out this season. He's only thrown 14 incomplete passes on the season on 51 attempts and has 10 touchdowns already. He has not lost a fumble and has not thrown an interception. But I think that changes this weekend. The Wildcats are +4 in the turnover margin and will be just good enough to force Hoover into a couple of bad throws. Hoover will still be really good, but Northwestern will pick him off one time.
5. Indiana will cover the 20.5-point spread
Even with Hoover giving the ball away for the first time this season, Indiana will still roll and cover the 20.5-point spread. Richard, Beebe, Marsh and Becker are just too good for Northwestern. All of them will have solid outings and they will each score at least one touchdown. If that actually happens, that puts IU at 28 points at least. With Indiana's defense playing as well as they are, Northwestern will struggle to score giving IU a chance to cover this decent-sized spread in the Big Ten opener.
