ATLANTA, Ga. — Recent history says winning a rematch game is a tough ask. That's the bad news for Indiana, the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff that takes on No. 5 Oregon again on Friday night at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. 

The Hoosiers beat the Ducks 30-20 back on Oct. 11 in Eugene, and they've never looked back. They've won 14 games in a row and are the nation's lone unbeaten team. But that was also the only game Oregon lost all year. They're 13-1 — and looking forward to a rematch.

And rightly so. There have been five rematches in the past two seasons, and the team that won the first game has lost four of the fives rematches.  The only two-time winner was Ole Miss, which beat Tulane during the regular season in September and then again in the first-round of the 12-team 2025 CFP.

Ole Miss lost to Georgia earlier this but beat them in the Sugar Bowl last week, and Alabama won its playoff game with Oklahoma after losing in November.

Oregon knows all about the rematch thing, too. They beat Ohio State during the regular season in 2024, but then lost in the quarterfinals a year ago. 

So, yeah, just 1-4.

But for Indiana, none of that means anything. Curt Cignetti is all about the process and preparing for every game regardless of any past history. So those rematches numbers don't mean anything.

There's a good reason for that. There's another stat, too, about teams with byes in this new 12-team format. They're 1-7 so far. The only win? That was Indiana last week at the Rose Bowl, when the Hoosiers boat-raced Alabama 38-4 in Pasadena, Calif.

So if I'm picking this game, I'm not focusing on either one of those numbers. I'm looking at the task at hand. Indiana is a 3.5-point favorite according to the folks at Fanduel.com, and I'm riding with the Hoosiers.

There are three reasons why.

1. Indiana will make Oregon one-dimensional. The Hoosiers defense has been great against the run lately. They held Alabama to just 23 yards in that rout, and in the second half back in October, Oregon only gained 12 yards on the ground and couldn't sustain a drive. Indiana only allows 73 yards a game, second-best in the nation. With the Oregon running backs group all banged up, I'm giving the Hoosiers a huge edge here.

2. Fernando Mendoza has been crazy accurate: Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, the Heisman Trophy winner, completed 14-of-16 passes against Alabama and had more touchdown passes (3) than incompletions (2). He's top-five in the country in completion percentage and will find open receivers. The Hoosiers will move the ball. I can see them scoring on four or five possessions, and if it's touchdowns instead of field goals, they could pull away in this one.

3. A team of destiny, for sure: These are unprecedented times for Indiana football. These past two years have been incredible under Curt Cignetti, with the Hoosiers going 25-2 and making two straight CFP appearances. Now it's time to close out the deal and beat Oregon to earn a spot in the finals. 

My first reaction was Indiana, 27-20, and I'll stick with it. But as I said in the video, if it was 27-13, I wouldn't be surprised, either. I think Oregon is really good, but Indiana is the best in the country, and they'll get it done.  

HOW TO WATCH INDIANA-OREGON: Indiana and Oregon play for a spot in the national championship game on Friday night when they square off in the Peach Bowl in Atlanta, a College Football Playoff semifinal game. Here's how to watch, with game times and TV information, a breakdown of the game and the latest on the point spreads. READ MORE 

CIGNETTI TALKS ABOUT HIS FATHER: When Curt Cignetti's father was inducted into the College Football Hall of Fame 12 years ago, the Indiana coach wasn't there. He was following his process, staying in Pennsylvania for practice with his team. He talked about his father, and what he's meant to him, during Thursday's press conference. READ MORE

TOM BREW COLUMN: On both sides of the ball and at every level, Indiana has a bunch of fourth- and fifth-year players who have seen a lot on the football field. That experience allows them to practice well — and play even better. They play with confidence and swagger, even at a school with little history of success. READ MORE 

CAN INDIANA BE FOR REAL? The Indiana Hoosiers have defied expectations the past two years. 2024 was great, but many thought it was a fluke. Now, 2025 has been even better, a perfect 14-0 and a first-ever No. 1 national ranking. Can the Hoosiers sustain their historic run during the postseason while a skeptical nation watches on? READ MORE

LANNING RESPECTS INDIANA: Oregon coach Dan Lanning already has first-hand experience with playing No. 1-ranked Indiana. The Ducks had their shot in October but lost 30-20 in Eugene, their only loss of the year. They get a rematch on Friday in the College Football Playoff in Atlanta, and are looking for a different result. READ MORE 

EISEN SAYS INDIANA 'BULLIES OF COLLEGE FOOTBALL': Noted sportscaster Rich Eisen spent much of his podcast on Friday talking about the juggernaut Indiana football team. He said the Hoosiers are ''now the bullies of college football.'' Here are the highlights of his show, with a link to the 15-minute segment. READ MORE

ROSE BOWL COLUMN: Indiana played like the No. 1 team in the nation at the Rose Bowl Thursday, destroying Alabama 38-3 to advance to the College Football Playoff semifinals. They whipped up on their opponent like Alabama's done to others for decades. This year's Indiana team is simply that good. They proved it again. READ MORE