From game totals and team scoring thresholds to key player props, here are the top over/under lines to target for Indiana at Rutgers.
From game totals and team scoring thresholds to individual player milestones, finding an edge on the board comes down to identifying value in the matchups and trends. It's not science, but it is fun.
Ahead of this matchup between the Indiana Hoosiers and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights, we've pinpointed five over/under targets, spanning game totals, player props and some scoring lines — basically anything that looks ripe for the picking. Here is how the board shapes up and where the sharpest angles lie.
1. Game Total: Over/Under 55.5 Points
The Line: Over 55.5 (-114)/Under 55.5 (-106)
During the first three weeks of the season, Indiana was on a roll, scoring 52, 55 and 38 points by themselves. But then last week, against an outmatched Northwestern team, IU could only muster 29 points.
Indiana's defense has been dominant, allowing just 9.8 points per game and under 66 rushing yards per contest. The excel at forcing long drives and limiting explosive plays, which keeps the opponent off the scoreboard. That doesn't bode well for a Rutgers team that has struggled on offense and with turnovers. The Scarlet Knights have turned the ball over 10 times in four games and just haven't shown much rhythm on offense.
Even in a pretty lopsided blowout like 38-10 or 35-14, the total would still stay comfortably under the 55.5 mark.
The Pick: UNDER 55.5 points
2. Charlie Becker Receiving Yards: Over/Under 77.5
The Line: Over 77.7 (-114)/Under 90.5 (-114)
Becker has been so good week after week. He's basically been a walking touchdown out there on the field and he's averaging almost 100 yards per outing. His line this week is set at 77.5 yards, which he's eclipsed over the last three games. He finished with 64 yards during Week 1, but that was during a blowout over North Texas and he still scored two touchdowns. So far this year, Becker hasn't racked up a ton of catches, but when he does get the ball, he gobbles up the yard, either on a long ball through the air or after the catch.
The Pick: OVER 77.5 yards
3. Josh Hoover Rushing Yards: Over/Under 6.5
The Line: Over 6.5 (-114)/Under 6.5 (-114)
Hoover's line for rushing yards is low at just 6.5, but the under still feels like the move here. Obviously sacks count as negative yardage, so if Hoover gets sacked once or twice, that will eat up a big chunk of his likely-modest total.
Indiana is a pretty heavy 23.5-point favorite and is expected to run the ball in the traditional fashion. Hoover likely won't be asked to do much with his legs, which should keep his total down. Hoover only has 21 net rushing yards on the season, which is just 5.25 yards per game with near-zero totals in three of the four contests. Unless he breaks loose for a rare 10+ yard scramble on a broken play without taking a sack all day, the math strongly favors him finishing under 6.5 yareds.
The Pick: UNDER 6.5 yards
4. 1st Quarter Total Points: Over/Under 13.5
The Line: Over 135 (-113)/Under 13.5 (-113)
Indiana has demonstrated it can blow past 13.5 points in the 1st quarter all by itself against teams it outmatches (posting 14 against North Texas and 20 against Howard). With Indiana favored by 23.5 points, their offense is expected to set a dominant early tone.
With this line, Rutgers doesn't have to "help" much. But a single opening-drive field goal, a big play off script or favorable field position from a turnover or special teams play could put the Scarlet Knights in a position to add to the total score. The turnover thing could go the other way too. Rutgers has been turnover prone, which could result in a bonus possession for Indiana in the first 15 minutes.
The Pick: OVER 13.5 points
5. Indiana First Half Total Points: Over/Under 21.5
The Line: Over 21.5 (+102)/Under 21.5 (-136)
So far this year, Indiana's first-half scoring drops significantly as the caliber of opponent increases. Against lower-tier or non-FBS competition (North Texas and Howard), they averaged 32.5 first-half points. Against better opponents like Western Kentucky and Northwestern, they averaged just 13 points in the first half — well under the 21.5 line.
A balance mix of runs and high-percentage throws from Josh Hoover, during longer sustained, methodical drives points toward a 14-3 or 17-0 type of score at the break. The tempo and potential game script just doesn't scream high scoring.
Taking the under 21.5 first-half points for Indiana is the smarter statistical play here.
The Pick: UNDER 21.5 points
