Indiana vs. North Texas: Score Predictions

College football returns this weekend and the defending national champions will officially begin their 2026 campaign Saturday afternoon in Bloomington.

No. 6 Indiana opens the season against North Texas at noon inside Memorial Stadium, with the game schedule to air on FOX. Both teams are ready to get their seasons underway, but the similarities between the two programs largely end there.

Saturday will mark just the third meeting between the Hoosiers and Mean Green. The two programs previously faced off in 2011 and 2014, with each team winning on its home field.

North Texas enters the season coming off the most successful year in program history. The Mean Green finished 12-2 in 2025, captured the American Athletic Conference championship and earned a spot in the final AP Top 25 for the first time ever.

However, much of the team responsible for that success is no longer in Denton.

Former head coach Eric Morris left to take the job at Oklahoma State, bringing several key players with him, most notably quarterback Drew Mestemaker. North Texas has undergone significant change since then, bringing in more than 50 transfers and turning to a new coaching staff.

Neal Brown was named the 21st head coach in North Texas football history in December of last year. He arrives with extensive experience, having spent 10 seasons as a head coach at Troy and West Virginia. 

Brown compiled a 72-51 record during those stops, making seven bowl appearances and winning five of them. He also guided Troy to three seasons with at least 10 victories, a Sun Belt championship and the 2017 Sun Belt Coach of the Year award.

His tenure at West Virginia was considerably more uneven. Brown finished just 37-35 with the Mountaineers before being dismissed following the 2024 season. West Virginia struggled defensively throughout much of his tenure, while the offense rarely developed into on of the nation's elite units. 

One familiar face will be leading North Texas' offense this weekend. 

Former IU quarterback Tayven Jackson is expected to start for the Mean Green. Jackson, the younger brother of former Indiana basketball standout Trayce Jackson-Davis, returns to Bloomington after previously beginning his career with the Hoosiers.

Jackson received the most extensive playing time of his career last season at UCF. At 6-4, 210 pounds, Jackson has good size, a strong arm and pretty solid athleticism. He likes to stay in the pocket, but has enough to move the chains with his legs. 

With so much turnover at North Texas, most are expecting a step back after such a historical season last year.

As for Indiana, the Hoosiers enter the season with considerably higher expectations. After winning the national championship, Curt Cignetti's program begins the 2026 season ranked No. 6 in the country and is heavily favored to start the season with a victory.

The numbers reflect just how significant the perceived gap is between the two teams.

As of the beginning of game week, Indiana was listed as a 40.5-point favorite. ESPN's Football Power Index gives the Hoosiers a 98.2% chance of winning. The FPI also sees IU as the No. 6 team in the nation, while North Texas checks in at No. 91.

The SP+ projection is even more one-sided, forecasting a 47-7 Indiana victory while giving the Hoosiers a 99% probability of leaving Memorial Stadium with a win.

On paper, this matchup heavily favors the defending national champs. But with the season opener finally almost here, the bigger question is whether Indiana can immediately look like a team capable of defending its title.

With that in mind, here are our predictions for Saturday's matchup between Indiana and North Texas.

The Hoosiers absolutely blasted several teams last year. I know it's not 2025 anymore, but Curt Cignetti has shown that he won't take it easy on anyone. He wants his team to perform at a high level for four quarters.

Last season, Indiana beat Kennesaw State by 47 points and they blanked Indiana State 73-0. In the Big Ten, IU beat then No. 9-ranked Illinois by 53, UCLA by 50 and Purdue by 53, in West Lafayette. That tells me that Cignetti and Co. will not relent regardless of the opponent. 

I see new quarterback Josh Hoover playing a very efficient game while IU's defense makes things nearly impossible for the Mean Green.

Indiana 55, North Texas 10

Indiana enters this matchup as heavy favorites, leveraging superior depth across both sides of the ball to dictate the tempo early against a North Texas squad that struggles to match up physically in the trenches.

Expect the Hoosiers to set the tone with a balanced offensive attack, utilizing a powerful and disciplined ground game to wear down the Mean Green front seven while opening up vertical passing lanes. While North Texas may find a small of success through a fast tempo, sustained drives will be hard to come by against Indiana’s aggressive defense.

Indiana 41, North Texas 17