
BLOOMINGTON, Ind. — Indiana basketball fans think they're smarter than the average fan base, but there are a lot of times they blend right in with the misguided souls across the country.
They tend to vastly overreact to a single loss, and tend to criticize the entire program — all the coaches and all the players — after one bad day. They also tend to give up easily after a defeat.
That was certainly the case on Sunday, when Indiana lost 71-51 at No. 8 Illinois. The Hoosiers kept it close for much of the first half, but couldn't make a shot in the second and got blown out.
This was, certainly, no big surprise. Illinois had won 12 in a row before two painful overtime losses without two of their best players. They had Kylan Boswell, their best perimeter defender, back after missing more than a month with a hand injury, and they had several former stars back inside the State Farm Center during the NBA All-Star break. The building was electric — and the Illini, a big 11.5-point favorite at tipoff, won easily.
With the loss, Indiana is now 17-9 and 8-7 in the Big Ten. They've worked their way into the NCAA Tournament field with impressive recent wins over Purdue, UCLA and Wisconsin, and were considered an 8-through-10 seed.
The Illinois loss was ugly, but it was also borderline irrelevant when it comes to their NCAA resume. They were supposed to lose, and they did. While a win would have certainly be a huge help, the loss didn't really change things.
Moving on.
Hoosiers fans ripped them afterward, calling them ''a mid-major team,'' ''lazy,'' ''didn't play with any energy,'' and ''no talent after Lamar Wilkerson.''
Many also said ''the season is over.''
So not true.
The Hoosiers have five games left in the regular season. They play at Purdue on Friday, have three straight home games with Northwestern, Michigan State and Minnesota and close out the year with a game at Ohio State.
Two wins — they'll be big favorites against Northwestern and Minnesota — gets them to 19 overall and 10 in the Big Ten.
Just that, the two wins, still might be enough to get in the NCAA Tournament. And history says so.
Since the Big Ten expanded to a 20-game regular season schedule in 2018, 10 teams have finished with a 10-10 record, and six of them have made the NCAA Tournament. There were six other teams that won fewer than 10 league games — five with nine wins, one with eight — that made the NCAA Tournament.
Of those 12 teams that made the tournament, 10 of them actually won their first game — and all but one as a lower seed.
An 11th win would certainly help, because as we know, Mike Woodson's last two teams at Indiana went 10-10 and didn't make the tournament. But both of those teams seemed resigned to move on and let those seasons end. They even passed on the NIT twice, just to move on to the next year.
The six Big Ten teams that did make the tournament are a better comparison for this Indiana team. Their current NET ranking is at 34, which should be enough to get in. Almost all of the best bracketologists out there still have Indiana well into the field as of Tuesday morning.
Here's a good history of 10-10 Big Ten teams that have made the NCAA Tournament, and the few that haven't.
Iowa Hawkeyes: The Hawkeyes finished 21-10 in the regular season, and 10-10 in the Big Ten. They won a first-round game (Illinois) in the conference tournament, but lost in the quarterfinals to Michigan. They earned an NCAA Tournament bid as a No. 10 seed and beat No. 7 Cincinnati in the first round before losing to No. 2 seed Tennessee in the second round.
Minnesota Golden Gophers: The Gophers were just 9-11 in the Big Ten that year, and 19-12 in the regular season but still made the NCAA Tournament. They won two games in the conference tournament before losing in the semifinals to Michigan. They were a No. 10 seed at beat No. 7 Louisville before losing to No. 2 seed Michigan State in the second round.
Ohio State Buckeyes: The Buckeyes were just 8-12 in the Big Ten, and 18-13 overall after losing four of their last five games. They beat Indiana in the first round of the conference tournament, but lost to Michigan State in the semifinals. They earned a No. 11 seed in the NCAA Tournament and upset No. 6 Iowa State in the first round before losing to No. 3 Houston in the second round.
Michigan Wolverines: The 2020 NCAA Tournament was cancelled because of COVID, but the Wolverines were 10-10 in the league and 19-12 overall. They were in the field in all NCAA bracketology pairings. For our purposes, we'll count them as in.
Wisconsin Badgers: The Badgers went 16-11 overall and 10-10 in the Big Ten in a season shortened a bit by the pandemic. They won a first-round game in the conference tournament (Penn State) but lost to Iowa in the quarterfinals. They were a No. 9 seed in the NCAA Tournament and beat No. 8 North Carolina by 23 points before losing to No. 1 seed Baylor, the eventual national champion.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights: Rutgers went 14-10 overall and 10-10 in the Big Ten and still earned an NCAA Tournament berth. They beat Indiana in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament — that was Archie Miller's last game with the Hoosiers — and lost to Illinois in the quarters. They were a No. 10 seed in the NCAA Tournament and beat No. 7 Clemson in the first round before losing to No. 2 seed Houston.
Maryland Terrapins: The Terrapins finished 15-12 and 9-11 in the Big Ten and still made the NCAA Tournament anyway. The beat Michigan State in the first round of the conference tournament before losing to Michigan in the quarters. They were a No. 10 seed and upset No. 7 Connecticut 63-54 in the first round before losing to No. 2 seed Alabama in the second round.
Michigan State Spartans: Michigan State finished 15-11 overall and 9-11 in the Big Ten. They earned a spot in the NCAA Tournament, but lost in the First Four to UCLA in overtime.
Michigan Wolverines: This doesn't apply to our 10-10 count, but that year Michigan was just 17-13 overall and finished 11-9 in the league. They lost to Indiana in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament, but they made the NCAA Tournament anyway. Michigan made a run all the way to the Sweet Sixteen as a No. 11 seed, beating No. 6 Colorado State and No. 3 Tennessee before losing No. 2 Villanova in the regional semifinals.
Indiana Hoosiers: In Mike Woodson's first season at Indiana, the Hoosiers went 18-12 overall and 9-11 in the league. They beat Michigan and No. 1 seed Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament before losing to Iowa on a last-second shot by Jordan Bohannon in the semifinals. Indiana made the NCAA Tournament, and beat Wyoming in a First Four game in Dayton, Ohio, before losing to Saint Mary's in the first round in Portland, Ore.
Penn State Nittany Lions: The Nittany Lions went 19-12 in the regular season and 10-10 in the league. They won three Big Ten Tournament games (Illinois, Northwestern, Indiana) before losing to Purdue in the final. They were a No. 10 seed and beat No. 7 Texas A&M in the first round before losing to No. 2 seed Texas in the second round.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights: Rutgers finished 18-13 in the regular season and 10-10 in the league, but did not make the NCAA Tournament. Rutgers finished the season with a 3-7 record.
Michigan State Spartans: The Spartans went 18-13 in the regular season and 10-10 in the league. losing the last game of the regular season at Indiana. They won a first-round game in the Big Ten Tournament, but lost to Purdue in the quarterfinals. The Spartans were a No. 9 seed and upset No. 8 Mississippi State before losing to No. 1 seed North Carolina in the second round.
Iowa Hawkeyes: The Hawkeyes finished 18-13 and 10-10, but did not make the NCAA Tournament. They were just 1-6 vs. ranked opponents that year.
Indiana Hoosiers: The Hoosiers were 18-13 and 10-10, and made a late push to make the tournament, winning five straight before getting blown out 93-66 by Nebraska in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals. They lost nine game by double-digits that year and five by 20 points or more.
Indiana Hoosiers: The Hoosiers were 19-12 and 10-10, and had another year — the last under Mike Woodson — with multiple blowout losses, seven by 13 points or more. They lost to Oregon 72-59 in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament. The Hoosiers were 6-10 in their final 16 games after a 13-3 start.
So there you have it. An Indiana team that enters the Big Ten Tournament with a 19-1 record and a 10-10 conference mark is likely good enough to make the NCAA Tournament.
Sure, getting to 20 wins and 11 league victories would make them a lock, and that could still happen. They've already beaten Purdue once, they've had good success against Michigan State and Ohio State is a bubble team themselves.
Add in to the mix that a win or two in the Big Ten Tournament would also lock down the resume.
But this much is clear, and Hoosiers fans need to know this.
This season is far from over.