The 2026-27 Iowa State men's basketball season is almost here, folks. 

Head coach T.J. Otzelberger and his players hosted their annual media day at Hilton Coliseum on Monday, which means it's time for us here on IowaStateRoundtable.com to begin previewing the 2027 Cyclones. 

We'll have you covered with stories and analysis from Monday's interviews, but what better place to begin our 2026-27 Iowa State basketball coverage than to look at one of the most widely discussed aspects of the sport - the metrics. You either love them or you hate them, but at the end of the day, the metrics are ultimately the difference between a bubble team making the NCAA tournament or not. 

But if you're a Cyclone fan, there's no such thing as a bubble in Ames. Otzelberger's team has a lot of turnover this year, but there's no reason to believe Iowa State can't be one of the top teams in the Big 12 and be a top-five seed in the Big Dance this season. The culture is just too strong, so let's see what these predictive metrics have to say about the Cyclones. 

Iowa State finished No. 7 in the final KenPom rankings a season ago, so it's not a surprise to see it right back near that spot to begin the 2026-27 team. If you're unfamiliar with KenPom, it's arguably the top metric in college basketball, with major emphasis on recording offensive and defensive efficiency. The hallmark of Cyclone basketball is undoubtedly the defense, and KenPom has it at 90.2 - the second-best mark in the nation behind Big 12 rival Houston. 

Iowa State finds itself in the top-10 of EvanMiya, which creates its ranking from the  Bayesian Performance Rating (BPR). This evaluates a player or team's net value per 100 possessions. Like KenPom, the Cyclones are the third-best Big 12 team on this list behind Houston and Arizona. 

BartTorvik's data is very similar to KenPom because it tracks offensive and defensive efficiency, and what do you know, Iowa State is in the top 10 again. While the offensive rating ranks 42nd (116.0), the metric loves the Cyclones' defense. Iowa State checks in at 92.0 - which slots in at third behind Duke and Arizona. 

Haslametrics is absolutely loaded with information ranging from offensive and defensive efficiency to regular stats like field goal and three points percentage. That stuff is really cool and all, but what I love about this metric is how it adjusts its stats towards games in different locations, sites, start times, etc. 

Every metric on this list is a valuable one to take into account when you're getting your way-too-early gaze on the 2027 NCAA Tournament, but you're probably going to like this metric because it lists Iowa State as No. 4 - the highest ranking of any predictive metric on this list. The Cyclones' total efficiency rating of 126.40 ranks 10th in this metric, but when you play defense as well as Iowa State does, then that helps slide you into the top 10. 

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