The Hawkeyes' strong predictive metrics should carry them to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2023.
After months of waiting, the day every college basketball fan longs to live for is here.
That's right. Selection Sunday is tomorrow, which means the Field of 68 will be revealed.
Iowa basketball fans have dreaded this day for the last two years because they knew their team wouldn't be on the board, but 2026 should be the year that drought ends.
The Hawkeyes enter the NCAA tournament at 21-12 overall under first-year head coach Ben McCollum, having gone 1-1 at the Big Ten tournament in Chicago last week.
Various bracket experts have voiced their opinion on what seed Iowa should receive, but before we can get to those (stay tuned later in the day for that) let's do a deep dive inside the Hawkeyes' metrics - including their NET ranking, Wins Above Bubble, and predictive metrics.
According to the official NCAA website, the NET ranking is defined as this: The NET includes more components than just winning percentage. It takes into account game results, strength of schedule, game location, net offensive and defensive efficiency, and the quality of wins and losses.
The NET ranking also determines the quality of wins a team can have to booster its NCAA tournament resume. The NCAA created a quadrant system to break this down. Quadrant 1 wins are considered the best, while a Quadrant 4 loss is considered to be detrimental to a team's tournament resume.
Using the quadrant system, which was in its fourth season in 2020-21, the quality of wins and losses will be organized based on game location and the opponent's NET ranking.
- Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
- Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
- Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
- Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
The number of Quadrant 1 wins and Quadrant 3/4 losses will be incredibly important when it comes time for NCAA tournament selection and seeding.
With all of that being taken into consideration, here's where Iowa basketball ranks in the NET:
No. 25
No metric is more important than the NET, and Iowa is in pristine position here. The Hawkeyes don't boast an impressive resume - three Quad 1 wins and two Quad 3 losses - but the predictive metrics are helping Iowa soar into Selection Sunday. Had Iowa not rallied back to defeat Maryland on Wednesday, then the Hawks could easily be sweating out Selection Sunday right now.
Not convinced? Some of the bubble teams (Indiana, Oklahoma, Auburn) all have a NET ranking at or near the 40s - far below where Iowa sits.
Wins Above Bubble (WAB)
What it is (Courtesy of CBS Sports' David Cobb): Using a combination of each opponent's strength and the location of the game, WAB puts a 0-1 score on each game based on how likely the standard bubble team (No. 45 in the NET) would be to win. Big-time opponents bring big-time WAB payouts for wins and relatively small WAB hits for losses.
This is a new metric that was introduced last year, and it's become an important one for the selection committee.
Where Iowa stands: No. 38
The Hawkeyes' standing at 38 here may scare some fans, but when you actually look at the figures, Iowa is lightyears ahead of the bubble. There's a lot of examples to share, but let's compare Iowa to Auburn.
Despite having 16 losses, the Tigers are still in consideration for an at-large bid. They don't have much to stand on, however, as their WAB 0.35 - again far below Iowa's 1.59.
Other Predictive Metrics
The numbers have loved the Hawkeyes all season, and that's what ultimately carries Iowa over other teams. Here's a look where Iowa stands in some of the nation's most popular ratings:
KenPom: No. 25
BartTorvik: No. 25
EvanMiya: No. 27
Looking for a FREE Hawkeyes community?
Don't miss out on our Roundtable community and the latest news! It's completely FREE to join.
Share your thoughts, engage with our Roundtable writers, and chat with fellow members. Download the FREE Roundtable APP and stay even more connected!