No one truly pays attention to ESPN's win probability tracker, but its listing for No. 18 Iowa's non-conference finale against Northern Iowa on Saturday (3 p.m., FS1) is especially interesting. 

ESPN gives the Hawkeyes a 97.5% chance to defeat their in-state foes for the 18th consecutive time, but we're focusing on that 2.5% chance for UNI today. Iowa is a 40-point home favorite against the Panthers, but as they always say, anything can happen on any given Saturday. 

Let's dive into this week's three reasons why Iowa will beat Northern Iowa - and three reasons it won't. 

Iowa's playmakers take advantage of mismatches on the outside: Iowa is going to have a distinct advantage at every position on Saturday. That's just the reality when an FCS foe comes to town and you're favored by 40 points. The mismatch could end up being present the most in the trenches (the Hawkeyes struggled to run the ball last week), but I think you're going to see it in the passing game. It's hard to see UNI having the corners to stop anyone in Iowa's wide receiver room, so a big passing day could be in store. 

The defense suffocates UNI: The Hawkeye defense has been lights out through two weeks, so could we see a similar result on Saturday? It's very possible. Northern Illinois struggled to get first downs when it came to town in Week 1, and Iowa State managed just four first downs in the second half of the Cy-Hawk game. Northern Iowa does have some promising talent, but one with think Phil Parker can scheme up another lethal game plan. 

Avoiding unforced errors: The Hawkeyes could win this game by a substantial margin while making mistakes at the same time, but no one has had more close calls against the Panthers than Kirk Ferentz. He was quick to reference the double field goal block in 2009 during his weekly press conference on Tuesday, and that's not the only time UNI has given Iowa trouble. This isn't the same Panther program, but Northern Iowa is still coming to Kinnick Stadium with absolutely nothing to lose. Avoiding unforced errors like penalties, drops, and turnovers will only help make this a stress-free game for the Hawkeyes. 

Iowa gets caught looking ahead: This ties directly in with the final point above, but will Iowa be guilty of looking ahead to its key three-game stretch to open Big Ten play? The Hawkeyes' 24-hour rule of letting the result of the previous game impact preparation for the new one has long been placed in effect, but it will be interesting to see how Iowa gets up for this game. If it comes out flat, that's when Northern Iowa could have a chance to pounce early and make this game way too close for comfort. 

Running game collapses: Iowa's running game struggled to get anything going against Iowa State, totaling only 93 yards. While the fourth quarter was its best, 93 yards isn't going to cut it for a Hawkeye program built to win in the trenches. A bounce-back game against the Panthers is very likely, but Iowa is likely going to have to rely on backups Xavier Williams and Nathan McNeil if Kamari Moulton and L.J. Phillips are held out. The Hawkeyes should be fine, but they could be in trouble if they can't run the football and have to rely on the passing game again. 

UNI's backs get to the edge: If you've read our film review on Northern Iowa, you'll see that we noticed it likes to get its running game to the edge. The Panthers will run in between the tackles, but the chances of them succeeding there won't be high because of Iowa's big defensive lineman. The Hawkeyes will have little trouble winning this game if they can force the Panthers to make plays through the air, but if UNI can get some sort of a ground game going, things could get interesting in the first half. 

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HawkeyeRoundtable publisher Brad Schultz has covered the Iowa Hawkeyes since 2023. To send him story ideas, scoops, or criticize his writing, reach him at [email protected]