ESPN FPI’s Game-by-Game Projection Shows Challenging Road Ahead for Kansas
Kansas entered the 2026 season with questions surrounding its new-look roster and quarterback room, and ESPN’s Football Power Index reflected plenty of uncertainty surrounding the Jayhawks.
Before the season began, ESPN’s FPI projected Kansas to finish 3-9, with the Jayhawks receiving a 2.8 FPI rating and ranking 13th among the 16 Big 12 teams. The model also provided a win probability for every game on Kansas’ schedule.
The season opened with the matchup ESPN viewed as Kansas’ safest opportunity. FPI gave the Jayhawks a 99% chance to defeat Long Island University, a prediction Kansas comfortably exceeded with a 51-6 victory.
The Missouri matchup was viewed much differently. Kansas had just a 28% chance of winning against the Tigers. Missouri eventually defeated Kansas 38-21, giving FPI another result that aligned with its preseason projection.
Kansas then traveled to London to face Arizona State. FPI gave the Jayhawks a 47.4% chance to win, making it one of the closest games on the preseason projection. Kansas ultimately fell 24-17, dropping to 1-2 on the season.
Following the bye week, Kansas returns home to face Middle Tennessee State. FPI originally gave the Jayhawks a 94.1% chance of winning, making it the second-highest projected win probability on the schedule.
The schedule becomes significantly more difficult after that. Kansas was given just a 23.4% chance to beat Utah on the road and a 37.4% chance against Kansas State. The Jayhawks then returned home against Baylor, where FPI gave them a 45.7% chance to win.
The road trip to TCU was another difficult matchup in the model. Kansas had a 32.7% chance of defeating the Horned Frogs.
The Jayhawks received more favorable projections against UCF. FPI gave Kansas a 61% chance to win that matchup, making it the only Big 12 game remaining where the model gave Kansas better than a 50% chance before the season began.
Kansas’ final three games were also projected to be challenging. FPI gave the Jayhawks a 49.6% chance at West Virginia, 28.1% against BYU and 42% at Oklahoma State.
While FPI projected only three wins before the season, Kansas has already shown the ability to outperform the model in certain situations. The Jayhawks have also yet to play the majority of their conference schedule.
For Kansas, the remaining games will provide an opportunity to change the trajectory of a season that ESPN’s model viewed as a difficult one from the beginning.
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Jimmy Adeniran is a contributor to JayhawksROUNDTABLE. He can be reached at [email protected]
